January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

Whats the latest abysmal news Nito? Looks like same old, same old as far as the eye can see..what does your crystal ball say today?

He says "MOVE, to the Similkameen".

[Hawk]

He says "MOVE, to the Similkameen".

Probably a good move..even the Similkameen has been quite bommy this winter so far. Some lakes up there still not frozen really solid yet..temps have not been cold at all this year. As a matter of fact, it was colder end of Oct (24-26th ish) than most nights since. It can easily drop to -30c there with Arctic..this year, nowhere to be seen at all.

On a side note, the local ski hills were developed when our winters were colder, when having the base at ~2500 feet would offer most seasons with good snow, even at the bottom. It seems as though Climate Change has made this base elevation struggle many years. It would also seem like maybe we should have another resort where the base elevation is much higher up.. maybe 3500+?

[Catnip]

ens_image.png

Look at that blue member

Look at the Red one... a proud member of #teamNito

[stuffradio]

For those insisting we have no chance of winter anymore this year

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/ ... 0836751361
https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 0877912071

[Catnip]

Probably a good move..even the Similkameen has been quite bommy this winter so far. Some lakes up there still not frozen really solid yet..temps have not been cold at all this year. As a matter of fact, it was colder end of Oct (24-26th ish) than most nights since. It can easily drop to -30c there with Arctic..this year, nowhere to be seen at all.

On a side note, the local ski hills were developed when our winters were colder, when having the base at ~2500 feet would offer most seasons with good snow, even at the bottom. It seems as though Climate Change has made this base elevation struggle many years. It would also seem like maybe we should have another resort where the base elevation is much higher up.. maybe 3500+?

I wonder how that new ski resort in Squamish will fair. I believe the base will be at 1100m.

[PortKells]

E44E83A8-0DF3-453A-8804-69459CB0F9D4.png

Noticeable shift west here.

[PortKells]

gfsjan5.png

Even the warm outliers are tanking at the very end. Excellent trend.

[Catnip]

GEFS Ensembles North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

[PortKells]

cmcjan5.png

Gem. Looks the same up to the end.

[Catnip]

cmcjan5.png

Gem. Looks the same up to the end.

It looks fairly similar to the GEFS.

geps_z500_anom_noram_384.png

[Catnip]

Monthlies just came out:

jan.png

feb.png

march.png

[PortKells]

I think it goes without saying these are by far the best long range trends of the winter. If we can get it within 300 hours then we can start envisioning either greatness or an epic rug pull.

[Catnip]

I think it goes without saying these are by far the best long range trends of the winter. If we can get it within 300 hours then we can start envisioning either greatness or an epic rug pull.

It is definitely a positive sign when the 3 ensembles + weeklies are showing a similar patter evolution, but as you mentioned, nothing is guaranteed around here.

[PortKells]

It is definitely a positive sign when the 3 ensembles + weeklies are showing a similar patter evolution, but as you mentioned, nothing is guaranteed around here.

Yep. We've been grasping at ensemble straws all winter up until now. We still have to be wary of a false start here. Feb 2018 is on my mind.

[Antares]

I think it goes without saying these are by far the best long range trends of the winter. If we can get it within 300 hours then we can start envisioning either greatness or an epic rug pull.

At this point, even a rug pull would be welcome.