July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Mattman wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 7:47 am No, Port Kells, I’m unimpressed. By comparison to what are these records? Objective comparisons that we don’t have would be the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Period. It’s a very small window of time we have objective, day-to-day measurements. So no, I not on board. It’s such a tiny window of time with this kind of ability to make these observations.

Nito, more extreme storm development? So what storms do you mean? Explain further. Cyclones? Where’s the uptick in more and extreme typhoons and hurricanes? Provide objective data on that. Do you mean convective storms over a continent? Is there an uptick in the number and severity of tornadoes? If there’s an increased cost to storm damage that says more about the spread of urbanization in storm-prone areas. Do you mean stalled jet extensions that brought us the flood in Nov 2021? “Extreme storm development” is but one example of generalizations us “deniers” see as very sloppy reasoning that’s just to be accepted rather than questioned.

Cyclonic weather is evidence of climate change, anti-cyclonic weather is evidence of climate change, jet extensions are evidence of climate change, and jet retractions are evidence of climate change. It’s a gloss liberally applied to the point the reasoning is circular. Little wonder plebs like me who were follow-the-rules class pets now highly distrust institutional authority with an unapologetic middle finger. That trust was frittered away by such generalizations presented here that beg to be challenged but it's rather treated as above a challenge.

(Atheist and mathematician, Dr James Lindsay had shattered his religion of the academy, specifically STEM fields. He thought logical, academic rigour would win. He had a crisis of faith over an article in a STEM journal about how the study of glaciation needed feminist and indigenous perspectives. The pure, academic rationality he thought remained was breeched. Any academic field can become ideologically possessed by a god of the age.)

That trust I had was also depleted to see meteorology and climatology become increasingly cultic. It’s now orthodoxy to set emotion (fear, anxiety) over the merits. Step out of line with questions or observations about the orthodoxy of the day, out comes the slander that one is a flat-earther at best and a “denier” at worst with a deliberate attempt to implicitly link the word “denier” to odious Holocaust deniers. Good grief, kids have “climate anxiety.” If it were NOT cultic, objective contention would be rebutted with further points of objective contention rather than emotional, irrational implications were beyond questioning such things. If it were NOT cultic there would be open challenges to the "tipping points" that passed without a hitch and the inaccurate prognostications of yesteryear would be acknowledged rather than memory holed as though they never happened.

People smarter than me have questioned how you tease apart natural variability from anthropogenic causes. (I still haven’t seen that addressed here and it is the crux of the matter that is completely ignored). People also smarter than me question the cost-benefit of “reducing emissions,” how the poor especially would be pummelled by rising energy costs from boneheaded government policies (I.e UK and Germany), how we’re increasingly reliant on rare earth elements from regions with dubious practices in the silly name of “renewable energy”, how we can adapt as we always have rather than increase the cost of living in the name of “going green” or whatever vapid slogan is out there to increase government control. To all the anthropogenic-climate-change-is-catastrophic posters here (which is most of you), in this last paragraph at the risk of being arrogant, I know I’m making valid points. They’re pro-human points not swayed by the fear and anxiety of the news of day nor the limited data we have. They’re points about adapting without resorting to the bloated solutions posited that have zero cost-benefit to them. I’m anxious about many thing as that’s my default disposition. Climate change isn’t on the list. At the top of the list of anxieties is fear of government and special interest groups’ fear-based reactions, and the increasingly cultic feel to these sciences.
You are obviously very intelligent. However I’m not sure you’ve questioned your own sources to the same extent that you’ve questioned the institutions you seem to fear as a cult. And for me, that is just as important. The sources that are informing you likely have their own special interests to protect.

I’m not big into msm or a government lover myself. I see the science and it makes sense. I think the big climate meetings like COP or whatever are hypocritical at best.

Just so you’re aware it’s not the records that really matter or are truly “unprecedented “. It’s the rate of change we are seeing. For me it’s consistently breaking records by several degrees, or having set our most hectares burned by mid July. Of course these records aren’t truly sufficient but they quite clearly shouldn’t be ignored imo.

In the past, climate has changed relatively slowly short of some cataclysmic event. Seeing it change over decades of years is the real story here.

You’ve also brought in a number of points I never discussed, such as renewable energy. I don’t care about that stuff anymore. Capitalism has long doomed itself no matter what methods it uses. I’m just merely curious to see if people are changing their minds as the heat becomes more and more unbearable and obvious.

Also the forum is closer to 50/50 on this debate, it just swings back and forth between who is talking about it more. And during times of extreme weather around the globe like this it tends to get quieter on one side, understandably.

Personally I don’t think we should have to move the debate. This is a weather forum and there is fairly little else to discuss right now, climate change is one of the biggest drivers of our weather.

However at the same time I realize that we are all kind of set in our opinions so it doesn’t make a ton of sense to debate it anyways. For me it matters more if people are at least respectful to each other which right now seems to be the case. Either way i will back off once again and wish you all a good day.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Weather101 wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:17 pm You can't pin it to one event but the overall theme is more extreme events and that will continue to happen.
"Extreme events are increasing" is very sloppy language in my opinion.

The only possible way for extremes to increase is for standard deviations to increase, which I haven't looked into much but haven't seen such a trend so far.

The reason why I say it's sloppy is that for every increase in one extreme you will get an approximate decrease in another extreme. Eg. more extreme heat but less extreme cold.

The accurate way to put it is that yes, cold kills more people than heat does, and warming has therefore decreased the number of people dying from extreme temperatures so far, BUT we will get to a point a few decades into the future where it will get so warm that the number of people dying from extreme heat will be higher than what currently die from cold and heat (barring forced installation of air conditioning).
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

This is good news !!
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Glacier wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 12:56 pm "Extreme events are increasing" is very sloppy language in my opinion.

The only possible way for extremes to increase is for standard deviations to increase, which I haven't looked into much but haven't seen such a trend so far.

The reason why I say it's sloppy is that for every increase in one extreme you will get an approximate decrease in another extreme. Eg. more extreme heat but less extreme cold.

The accurate way to put it is that yes, cold kills more people than heat does, and warming has therefore decreased the number of people dying from extreme temperatures so far, BUT we will get to a point a few decades into the future where it will get so warm that the number of people dying from extreme heat will be higher than what currently die from cold and heat (barring forced installation of air conditioning).
I respect your response very well written 👏
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

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20230721003545-628672e4cd56c17604b804d9fdd671cf35c4995c.png
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles


12z GEFS (GFS ensembles)
gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png


12z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)
eps_apcpn_wus_60.png


12z GEPS (GEM ensembles)
gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 5:42 pm Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles


12z GEFS (GFS ensembles)
gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png



12z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)
eps_apcpn_wus_60.png



12z GEPS (GEM ensembles)
gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png
Would sure be nice to get some moisture.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

C'MON!!!
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-precip_24hr_mm-0308000.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 8:15 pm C'MON!!!
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-precip_24hr_mm-0308000.png
:think:
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Roberts Creeker wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 9:56 am Can we move the climate change talk to the climate change discussion thread please. It's here: viewtopic.php?t=571
Or we could just move the weather to the Climate discussion thread Ms. Climatechangecreek. :D We reached another scorching 31c @ the pond in south Sardis and it's currently 20c at 1:00a.m.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Speaking of Fall weather, I saw pumpkin and Thanksgiving decor in a store yesterday.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

I feel like we say this every year but is it just me or is summer just flying by? One week away from August....
Last edited by Weather101 on Fri Jul 21, 2023 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

stuffradio wrote: Fri Jul 21, 2023 6:21 am Speaking of Fall weather, I saw pumpkin and Thanksgiving decor in a store yesterday.
Honestly doesn't bug me anymore lol but that shouldn't even need to come out till like September.
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Re: July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 8:15 pm C'MON!!!
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-precip_24hr_mm-0308000.png
That will keep the dust down for a day.
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