December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:13 pm

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:12 pm 18z going to be good.

No Sh*t

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:24 pm

First gfs run to show some lowland snow with the system at the end of the week. IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve been keeping my

on that one

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:26 pm

Monty wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:24 pm First gfs run to show some lowland snow with the system at the end of the week. IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve been keeping my on that one

12z ICON had snow too.

Weather101 · Post by **Weather101** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:28 pm

Should add in anytime you get a pattern change the models always struggle and you will get a few bad runs.
All in all liking the way things are progressing

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:30 pm

Weather101 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:28 pm Should add in anytime you get a pattern change the models always struggle and you will get a few bad runs.
All in all liking the way things are progressing

Anything but split flow or death ridge right now is great.

wetcoast91 · Post by **wetcoast91** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:34 pm

Well Sh*t. Mild and dry.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:38 pm

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:34 pm Well Sh*t. Mild and dry.

GFS model riding meltdowns are so hilarious. The fact we can go from an ice cold snowy run to a mild and dry run in the matter of hours, tells us that no long range solution is reliable. There will be good and bad runs during a pattern change. The way people respond to model run changes is like sport fans. One win and we are playoff contenders. One loss and we should fire the management. Logical, right?

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:39 pm

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:34 pm
Well Sh*t. Mild and dry.

It's time to dust off the ensembles.

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:43 pm

It's pretty evident that GFS is clueless in the long range.

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:59 pm

Still gets there. NEXT

gfs_T850_nwus_55.png

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:02 pm

It appears the Operational is on the warm side of the period in ??? where Nito said warm and dry.

20191228_150348.jpg

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:12 pm

Why do forecasts change? Meteorologist Tyler Hamilton has the answer. This is very interesting and explains why we often see dramatic model shifts run to run in the long range.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... ist/119654

Weather101 · Post by **Weather101** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:12 pm

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:34 pm
Well Sh*t. Mild and dry.

Na we will be good

Post by **Catnip** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:15 pm

Actually a bit cooler than the 12z.

Op off on its own on the 7th.

C9629C2F-03BC-4D5E-A392-3DC8E48F5E55.jpeg

Antares · Post by **Antares** » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:18 pm

Weather101 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:53 pm Maybe it's just me but this is a great pattern to go into.
Chilly with multiple snow chances for us, There is nothing to complain about. I take this over having cold and dry or the dreadful split flow Ã¢â‚¬ÂÃ¢â„¢â‚¬Ã¯Â¸Â

Yeah exactly. We need a pattern change. This is what we've been waiting for.

December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

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