July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

That will keep the dust down for a day.

12 hours

[Ovonucks]

Can we move the climate change talk to the climate change discussion thread please. It's here: viewtopic.php?t=571

But then it goes somewhere hidden. This is an important topic that should not get relegated to where it gets fewer eyes

[Hawk]

C'MON!!!
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-precip_24hr_mm-0308000.png

Looks like NOTF event

[Typeing3]

But then it goes somewhere hidden. This is an important topic that should not get relegated to where it gets fewer eyes

That's what different threads are for.

[Weather101]

[Weather101]

But then it goes somewhere hidden. This is an important topic that should not get relegated to where it gets fewer eyes

I agree! Especially in the summer when there isn't anything else to talk about and it's super dead on here

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

12 hours

l'll up your 12 and say 6 hours.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I agree! Especially in the summer when there isn't anything else to talk about and it's super dead on here

It doesn't bother me at this time of year as long as politics doesn't rear it's ugly head that usually ends up nasty and a brawl in here. l reached a high of 28c at the pond in south Sardis today it's currently 27c at this time.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

But then it goes somewhere hidden. This is an important topic that should not get relegated to where it gets fewer eyes

It doesn't bother me Ovenman it is quiet this time of year, l've gone off topic afew times.

[Weather101]

[Typeing3]

12 GFS ensembles:

ens_image (7).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (8).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (9).png

[Typeing3]

20230722010035-185f34b730fe12553b72230ad55f2b38057d2368.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12 GFS ensembles:
ens_image (7).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (8).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (9).png

its_gon_rain.jpg

[AbbyJr]

Absolutely insane thunderstorms with lightning and heavy rain hit parts of Nova Scotia today. Some suburbs of Halifax reported rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm within 7 hours.

Title: Extreme rainfall floods parts of Nova Scotia
Author: Kalin Mitchel (CTV News Atlantic Chief Meteorologist)
Date: July 21, 2023 (Updated 8:28 PM. PDT)
Source: https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/extreme-rai ... -1.6489976

Downpours and thunderstorms packing rainfall rates in excess of 30, 40 and 50 millimetres per hour rained over communities in Nova Scotia stretching from near Port Mouton to Fall River Friday.
The slow movement west to east of the severe weather allowed for many communities to be hit by several rounds of torrential rain. Flooding and flash flooding occurred as rain totals climbed in excess of 100 millimetres. While no official totals are available, there are almost certainly going to be records for a July 21 set. It is also possible that some of the totals will challenge for the most for any day on record in July. That will be able to be checked through the weekend.

Along with communities on the south shore, some suburbs of the HRM were hit particularly hard. Personal weather stations in the vicinity of Bedford, Timberlea and Sackville reported some totals exceeding 200 millimetres of rain within seven hours. The extreme rain flooded basements, yards, roads and highways. An emergency alert was issued for the HRM Friday evening advising residents to stay off of roads unless it was an emergency.

Rainfall warnings continue for Atlantic coastal counties of mainland Nova Scotia, extending into Cape Breton with the exception of Inverness County, as of Friday night.
While areas of western Nova Scotia could still see additional rain on Saturday, the greatest risk of downpours and thunderstorms is expected to shift eastward on the weekend.

Saturday morning will see Halifax and east in Nova Scotia with the greatest risk of additional downpours and thunderstorms. By Saturday afternoon, Guysborough County and east with the greatest risk. Finally, Saturday night into Sunday morning will see the risk of downpours and thunderstorms linger for Cape Breton. The rainfall warnings for the eastern areas of Nova Scotia calling for a general 40 to 80 millimetres but cautioning that locally higher amounts are possible due to the tropical nature of the rainfall.

[Mattman]

It may be weasel-like, but it is a July observation l’ll get to here. If the post is moved or deleted, oh well.

Port Kells, Phil on the AF yesterday addressed the rate of change. It is negligible and easily adaptable compared to the rate of warming ~ 6k years ago. And I would posit it’s hubris to think we can adjust the rate of change like a thermostat. Well, the god-players think we can adjust it. That’s why I think it’s important to speak up. It’s not just I think others are wrong and I’m right. Those who hold political power can devastate our lives (and the lives of the child slave labour mining cobalt for electric cars). And if you’ll indulge me further on the cult-like aspect to all this, someone, anyone, has to call that dangerous garbage out. Fortunately guys with more smarts and influence than me like Bjørn Lomborg have spoken up with rational solutions.

You said the science makes sense to you. Something can on the surface make sense until contrary evidence comes along. I retract part of my earlier comment about objective data re: July observations. I should know better. The data are incomplete, misunderstood, or flat-out dishonest garbage. That’s the case with the supposed records broken in July:

https://apnews.com/article/global-heat- ... b1a37efe23

https://climaterealism.com/2023/07/eart ... erate-lie/

https://climaterealism.com/2023/07/wron ... is-summer/


If this is a thread about July observations, I humbly posit it is manipulated, dishonest data posted the last few days. I won’t ascribe ill motives to those on the forum, but I will ascribe nefarious motives about those that were posted from social media . And since this forum has a science-like bent, we should call it for what it is and banter back and forth. I will give Phil on the AF credit for posting yesterday that the message and messengers in media and social media damage—for lack of a better term—the cause. At least he’s willing to admit the steaming manure pile of bad data and unethical spouting off. He didn’t take the next step, however, that the academy is complicit at best about such lapses. And it was disturbing not that he was getting pushback, but pushback that the ends (societal compliance) justified the means (lying). Actually, that’s cultish. And it’s cultish to see the academy, politicians, and media slander and try to destroy those drawing attention to the issues with data. It is cult-like to be critical of those who are rightly critical of the data without being critical of the data themselves.

I’m not special. Many like me remember the massaged data of “hide the decline” from 14 years ago, the garbage Cook et al study of “96% of scientists agree….” We know enough to know there are valid counterpoints. So we look elsewhere for a counterpoint to the firehouse of bad data in our in faces whenever we check the news. And we know the stories media and other run with turn out to not be what they appear. The numbers of those that think like me will grow in number if this pile of manure isn’t dealt with by those who should know better.

Glacier, you made some good points I mostly agree with.

Lastly, and with this I’ll end it. I’m not into a gotcha shaming. I think it’s cheap moralizing to say to someone, “Oh, your clothes were made in Malaysia. You bastard! You support slavery.” Or, “You’re not eating locally grown organic food. Shame!” In day-to-day life you make those casual purchases to get by. I can’t avoid life without lithium ion batteries. They’re in my phone, laptop, and the battery pack in my chest that feeds a constant electric current to my brain to quell the Parkinson’s symptoms (DBS surgery). The rare earth elements in those items are minuscule compared to what’s needed for EVs. And an EV isn’t a casual living expense. Not only do I question that we have enough rare earth elements to “go green,” but what looks to be child slavery tut-tutted by the elites really pisses me off for more than disagreements about anthropogenic climate change. I’ll fight like hell to keep my ICE vehicles. Cobalt mining is one of a few of green energy’s dirty secrets. That’s the main reason this law-and-order, right wing capitalist is with an anarchic zeal rooting for the total demise of this quasi-socialist, distorted EV/green economy. I’ll stick with comparatively ethical Alberta oil, thank you.