January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Esquimalt39
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Esquimalt39 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:09 pm That low for Sunday is trending even further west on the 00Z GFS. The island scores once again while the mainland misses out. Stupid. :x
Looks like I would struggle to score in a setup like that. Looks like a duncan to parksville setup so really not that many will score.
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Hawk
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Whats your call Big John.. :?:
June has arrived..and so has Summer! Yesssss :clap: :clap:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Hawk wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:11 pm Whats your call Big John.. :?:
Surprises hawk!
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Esquimalt39 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:11 pm Looks like I would struggle to score in a setup like that. Looks like a duncan to parksville setup so really not that many will score.
Thankfully I don't think the GFS skill on long range low placements are very high. Phew. Winter back on. :clap:
Last edited by AbbyJr on Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Monty
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Esquimalt39 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:09 pm Would that be cool enough for Victoria? Looks extremely marginal.
Probably too warm for sea level unless we have some wet bulb assistance with a bit of dry air sneaking in.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Monty
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

This run looks quite a bit different. Stronger ridge into Alaska, more cold air suppressed into the interior early next week. Not out to the coast but we’ll see if it’s a trend.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:13 pm Thankfully I don't think the GFS skill on long range low placements are very high. Phew. Winter back on. :clap:
Don't worry Jr.
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Esquimalt39
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Esquimalt39 »

Monty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:13 pm Probably too warm for sea level unless we have some wet bulb assistance with a bit of dry air sneaking in.
That track should give some north easterlies hopefully. Tonight's GFS shows you scoring big man.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Esquimalt39 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:16 pm That track should give some north easterlies hopefully. Tonight's GFS shows you scoring big man.
:shock: Yep. It was a good setup for the SE island, higher elevations. It’s a lot different than anything we’ve seen models show recently. I’d probably disregard for now.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Trough trending sharper and digs offshore. Result is no precip for the Lower Mainland.

Thinking this trends further offshore.

GEM not yet catching up.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:28 pm Trough trending sharper and digs offshore. Result is no precip for the Lower Mainland.

Thinking this trends further offshore.

GEM not yet catching up.
Thanks El Negative. :D
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:28 pm Trough trending sharper and digs offshore. Result is no precip for the Lower Mainland.

Thinking this trends further offshore.

GEM not yet catching up.
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gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png
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Last edited by Storm on Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:28 pm Trough trending sharper and digs offshore. Result is no precip for the Lower Mainland.

Thinking this trends further offshore.

GEM not yet catching up.
I think we call it wishful thinking.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Snow bullseye over juniors house on the GEM
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Monty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:36 pm Snow bullseye over juniors house on the GEM
The new GFS is a lot more like the GEM.
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