January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Getting less snow coverage on each run with UKMET and CMC. Lets see what the ECMWF churns out. If it's drier then the GFS is the leading horse.

[Catnip]

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[Catnip]

Getting less snow coverage on each run with UKMET and CMC. Lets see what the ECMWF churns out. If it's drier then the GFS is the leading horse.

Wouldn't be surprised. I think some (myself included) tend to discount the GFS too quickly. Remember last week when it was an "outlier" with it's temperatures when compared to the ensembles?

[wetcoast91]

Wouldn't be surprised. I think some (myself included) tend to discount the GFS too quickly. Remember last week when it was an "outlier" with it's temperatures when compared to the ensembles?

Ensembles are good for short range modeling for low pressure tracking but theres a massive drop in resolution and reliability in long range forecasting. A trend with the op model over several consecutive runs is usually an indicator of a trend rather than an outlier.

[Monty]

Wouldn't be surprised. I think some (myself included) tend to discount the GFS too quickly. Remember last week when it was an "outlier" with it's temperatures when compared to the ensembles?

There really isn’t that much difference between model accuracy. GFS, GEM, Euro. It’s probably a few percentage points difference. Not like the GFS is useless. Sometimes the B student gets a question correct and the A student gets it wrong.

[AbbyJr]

Wouldn't be surprised. I think some (myself included) tend to discount the GFS too quickly. Remember last week when it was an "outlier" with it's temperatures when compared to the ensembles?

To be fair, a couple days ago the GFS had 20cm of snow Sunday and near freezing temperatures with cold onshore flow persisting for a week. Showed more snow chances too. Then it trended mild and dry. So clearly it was wrong that time. But it certainly was the first model to back of on the cold and snowier solutions.

Whats frustrating is how hard it seems to be get snow around here, even in an ideal ENSO and QBO state. Our warming climate sucks.

[Monty]

Any long range modeling, including ensembles, is only useful for forecasting west coast ridging, preferably that bridges into an arctic block that sends the east into a prolonged deep freeze. How am I doing Nito?

[Catnip]

To be fair, a couple days ago the GFS had 20cm of snow Sunday and near freezing temperatures with cold onshore flow persisting for a week. Showed more snow chances too. Then it trended mild and dry. So clearly it was wrong that time. But it certainly was the first model to back of on the cold and snowier solutions.

Whats frustrating is how hard it seems to be get snow around here, even in an ideal ENSO and QBO state. Our warming climate sucks.

That is does.

[Catnip]

Any long range modeling, including ensembles, is only useful for forecasting west coast ridging, preferably that bridges into an arctic block that sends the east, especially Barrie, into a prolonged deep freeze. How am I doing Nito?

Fixed it for you.

[wetcoast91]

Any long range modeling, including ensembles, is only useful for forecasting west coast ridging, preferably that bridges into an arctic block that sends the east into a prolonged deep freeze. How am I doing Nito?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

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Boooooooo!

[wetcoast91]

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php? ... ent=682877

Holy hell. They have to be kidding right? They linked a video with a guy suggesting weather alteration due to the dry and windy effects of a thermal trough...Looks like the convection with the trough was squashed due to an onshore flow under the mid layer.

Forget science. It's the democrats fault!!

[Catnip]

12Z running a bit cooler than the 00z last night.

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php? ... ent=682877

Holy hell. They have to be kidding right? They linked a video with a guy suggesting weather alteration due to the dry and windy effects of a thermal trough...Looks like the convection with the trough was squashed due to an onshore flow under the mid layer.

Forget science. It's the democrats fault!!

In the defense of the person who made that link, their comments were clearly sarcastic. Even most of the righties on that site pretty quickly acknowledged that the ex-president had lost the election, fair and square.

But yeah, there’s lots of crazies on this side of the 49th. And even though they are no longer in the White House, they are not going to just go away. If you go to the off-topic politics threads, there’s lots of people with crazy friends and relatives who have gone full QAnon.

[wetcoast91]

12Z ECMWF...yikes.Takes that trough too far offshore.