January 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Currently a clear and chilly 4.2c, as compared to last night's low of 9.4c.

And another solid grey week...though today was glorious with sun, blue sky and no rain. I'll take some more like this, unless I can have snow instead.

It was a Nitorrrific day grey sky's are going to clear up put on a Nito face, spread weather proganda all over the forum so put on a Nito face.

GettyImages_159840379.jpg

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (12).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (13).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (14).png

[Typeing3]

20230115090317-081de14c6fb8ac5a74ffc9359b4989f1c187e8f7.png

[PortKells]

The 12Z. Winter is coming.

gfs_T850a_nhem_65.png

[PortKells]

Maybe just maybe a sub freezing day in January? Or preferably a snowstorm?

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_60.png

[Typeing3]

Maybe just maybe a sub freezing day in January? Or preferably a snowstorm?

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_60.png

YVR:

Last subfreezing day in late January = 1997
Last snowstorm in late January = 2002

[PortKells]

YVR:

Last subfreezing day in late January = 1997
Last snowstorm in late January = 2002

We've got a decent chance here. Timing has moved up to the 27th/28th or so.

[Catnip]

12Z EPS

Ridge builds in and then starts to retrograde allowing colder air to spill West.

Seems to be the theme with the different ensemble runs and GFS ops.

EPS1.png

Eps2.png

eps3.png

EPSt.png

[PortKells]

12Z EPS

Ridge builds in and then starts to retrograde allowing colder air to spill West.

Seems to be the theme with the different ensemble runs and GFS ops.

EPS1.png
Eps2.png
eps3.png
EPSt.png

Wow. This one feels like a no-doubter. However I know from experience such a thing doesn't exist. Probably why nobody is really talking about it yet - no one wants to ride the models again after that bruising ride in December.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (15).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (16).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (17).png

[Typeing3]

20230115205743-05765663c80144f7464d3aca52d0205b312ffbc6.png

[PortKells]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (15).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (16).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (17).png

What is up with the GEM? Does it have a warm bias or am I crazy?

[Catnip]

18z GFS Ensembles

Ridge starts retro'ing around day 10 and things get progressively cooler/colder.

While this is still way out there... the consistency between the different models is nice to see.

gefs_z500_anom_noram_384.png

gefs_t850_anom_noram_384.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Wow. This one feels like a no-doubter. However I know from experience such a thing doesn't exist. Probably why nobody is really talking about it yet - no one wants to ride the models again after that bruising ride in December.

Still about 2 weeks out, so very far from being a no-doubter.

[PortKells]

Still about 2 weeks out, so very far from being a no-doubter.

Definitely. Just saying the ensemble agreement is somewhat rare. Let's see where it goes the next few days.