January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hound]

Had a low of -14 last night.
Current: -8.3
DP: -15
Hum: 57%

Winds have calmed.
Temps slightly rising.

[Weather101]

[Monty]

Yeah I expect a lot of model chaos with that one. But if it works out perfectly, it has the potential to give us a big region wide snowstorm.

Could be boom or bust but potential for something big.
1. Cold trough is too fast and we stay cold but mostly dry with another winter-storm to our south
2. The trough and warm storm meet over the south coast and we get nailed.
3. The cold trough is too slow or southern branch too fast. Storm goes north. Brief snow to freezing rain to rain.

[AbbyJr]

Could be boom or bust but potential for something big.
1. Cold trough is too fast and we stay cold but mostly dry with another winter-storm to our south
2. The trough and warm storm meet over the south coast and we get nailed.
3. The cold trough is too slow or southern branch too fast. Storm goes north. Brief snow to freezing rain to rain.

Excellent assessment.

I'll take #2 please and thank you.

[Monty]

Low of -14.5c in east Coquitlam.

How’s this looking on the Typeing3 arctic outbreak scale?

It’s actually verified a little more impressively than I pictured especially given the pretty minimal snow cover most areas.

[Monty]

Excellent assessment.

I'll take #2 please and thank you.

If option 1 or 2 panned out we would probably see a more typical overrunning event later next week too. With heavy snow to freezing rain and rain

[Mattman]

Ah ah, that's because the high/low shown are from Kelowna UBCO, not the airport...
Yeah, the hourly data is from the airport, but not the extremes. You need to look for the other station (airport) manually to see the daily data. That's EC. I know this website perfectly well...

Thanks, Goose. In grade 12 I job shadowed for a day at the UBCO station (then Okanagan University College). Yeah, the airport station in Kelowna is in quite the frost pocket. The UBCO station opened in ‘93. Prior, I remember official readings were from the airport. So technically, it was the coldest December low since 1990. I could stand corrected, however.

[AbbyJr]

If option 1 or 2 panned out we would probably see a more typical overrunning event later next week too. With heavy snow to freezing rain and rain

At this time, do you have a most likely scenario out of the three you listed?

[Storm]

Nam looks good.

namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

[Hawk]

At this time, do you have a most likely scenario out of the three you listed?

I know you asked Monty, but my guess is the S energy will dominate due to EN and ~1cm snow turning to rain quickly

[Storm]

RGEM

prateptype-imp.us_nw.png

[Monty]

At this time, do you have a most likely scenario out of the three you listed?

2 or 3. Southern energy hasn’t been too overwhelming so far this winter. I’m probably like 50% on getting nailed. 20% staying cold. 30% on the boring warm up.

[VanCitySouth]

RGEM prateptype-imp.us_nw.png

I was just coming to say RGEM looks fantastic

[PortKells]

I just did by far the most frigid cold plunge I've done. Had to use a sledge hammer to knock the ice off, probably 5 inches thick.

[PortKells]

I know you asked Monty, but my guess is the S energy will dominate due to EN and ~1cm snow turning to rain quickly

I hate to say this but there looks to be a high potential for a significant ice storm, maybe similar to Jan 2022 or even Dec 2017.