January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

Those purples and pinks are pretty. Looks like the GFS is overdoing low level cold and outflow as usual

Yeah, it has been a frustrating winter. Totally wishcasting here!

[Catnip]

Magic 8 Ball, will it snow?

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[Bonovox]

Magic 8 Ball, will it snow?

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Watch the 00z runs bring it back.

[smartlikefox]

Those purples and pinks are pretty. Looks like the GFS is overdoing low level cold and outflow as usual

https://twitter.com/ParksvilleWX/status ... 89856?s=20

You mean like this?

[Catnip]

Watch the 00z runs bring it back.

Euro improved a bit from the 06z run... so there's that.

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[Monty]

Yeah, it has been a frustrating winter. Totally wishcasting here!

It’s just an interesting trend I was see on the GFS. It over plays the outflow and strait enhancement along the SE island. Over does the drying effect for the mainland especially the Valley and overdoes the cold and especially Snow amounts on the island. Looks unrealistic with little cold air in the interior

[PortKells]

Improvement in the long range at least.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_63.png

[wetcoast91]

Cold rain vs Warm rain?

[AbbyJr]

Improvement in the long range at least.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_63.png

Looks to me like the MJO wants to move into phase 7 in February. From my understanding, the GFS usually handles the MJO poorly and perhaps other models do as well. If this is the case, the there is still hope for winter in February.

February 2018 proved that even in our warming climate, mid-late February can still deliver, even if it's not as epic or ideal as earlier on in the season.

Never give up on winter.

[stuffradio]

Latest SREFPlumes showing about ~5 cm for YVR

Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 12.04.46 PM.png

[Hawk]

Looks to me like the MJO wants to move into phase 7 in February. From my understanding, the GFS usually handles the MJO poorly and perhaps other models do as well. If this is the case, the there is still hope for winter in February.

February 2018 proved that even in our warming climate, mid-late February can still deliver, even if it's not as epic or ideal as earlier on in the season.

Never give up on winter.

lol...keep the faith!

[Hawk]

Looks to me like the MJO wants to move into phase 7 in February. From my understanding, the GFS usually handles the MJO poorly and perhaps other models do as well. If this is the case, the there is still hope for winter in February.

February 2018 proved that even in our warming climate, mid-late February can still deliver, even if it's not as epic or ideal as earlier on in the season.

Never give up on winter.

Nito has been correct all winter. And he said Feb we get the goods. I'm going with
#TeamNito

[stuffradio]

In 10 days we will be gaining 3 minutes of light a day! In 12 days we will find out what our rodent friends think about Spring haha.

[PortKells]

Hmm. This is the run to run change on the GFS ensembles. Is it picking up on something? The euro isn’t on the same page but it is mildly improved.

4656F47E-CF10-4381-850A-6E05E0219AEF.jpeg

[wetcoast91]

In 10 days we will be gaining 3 minutes of light a day! In 12 days we will find out what our rodent friends think about Spring haha.

Michael1 is probably gathering them to hand to the nito gods.