January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

2 or 3. Southern energy hasn’t been too overwhelming so far this winter. I’m probably like 50% on getting nailed. 20% staying cold. 30% on the boring warm up.

Option 3 could possibly mean we see more cyclogenesis leading to a strong southerly windstorm!

[VanCitySouth]

Option 3 could possibly mean we see more cyclogenesis leading to a strong southerly windstorm!

Dream on, Neetz.

[wetcoast91]

Dream on, Neetz.

It's -4C at the airport right now. Maybe we hit -3C or -2C!

;

Abbotsford still cold

[AbbyJr]

I hate to say this but there looks to be a high potential for a significant ice storm, maybe similar to Jan 2022 or even Dec 2017.

Gosh I sure hope not but that does sound like a realistic outcome.

[PortKells]

Gosh I sure hope not but that does sound like a realistic outcome.

Lots of low level cold left over. Unless the upper level cold hangs on it feels inevitable. But its felt that way before and nothing happened so who knows.

[Catnip]

It's -4C at the airport right now. Maybe we hit -3C or -2C!

;

Abbotsford still cold

Shouldn’t you be outside cutting the grass?

[Storm]

Snow to ZR Thursday night into Friday morning.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_23.png

[VanCitySouth]

It's -4C at the airport right now. Maybe we hit -3C or -2C!

;

Abbotsford still cold

YVR caught a stray NW wind and had brief ocean warming interference. Also it's the warmest part of the day, so I don't think -2 is in play today. Maybe tomorrow though

[wetcoast91]

Shouldn’t you be outside cutting the grass?

I still have 3 weeks to go to keep my monthly mow streak going.

[AbbyJr]

Lots of low level cold left over. Unless the upper level cold hangs on it feels inevitable. But its felt that way before and nothing happened so who knows.

The good news is that there is a reinforcing shot of modified arctic air modelled to come down Tuesday night. Given that the NE flow looks to continue and the canyon should still be plenty cold, we might be able to just barely keep the upper levels cold enough for snow, at least inland.

But an ice storm is certainly a realistic possibility. For all we know, we may not even have enough surface cold left. Time will tell.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_snow_24-5147200.png

cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_snow_24-5147200.png

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_snow_24-5147200.png

[Weather101]

YVR is running warmer than expected, according to EC.

-5 predicted daytime high

Currently -3

[Weather101]

I know you asked Monty, but my guess is the S energy will dominate due to EN and ~1cm snow turning to rain quickly

You say this now, but later tonight, you will call for a snowstorm, so lol

[AbbyJr]

Currently -6.3C here with a dew point of -18C. YXX is -7.4C so a bit colder. Not liking how it's a bit warmer today than modelled.

[Hawk]

After a Low of -37c in the Similkameeeens this morning, the temp is still sitting at a bone chilling -27, and didnt crack -30c until noon today