January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[LadnerWeather]

I mean these runs HAVE to start moderating fairly soon.

After this mornings runs, I think It’s officially model riding time

[Catnip]

CYXX_2024010312_forecast_240.png

[Monty]

GEM Ensemble seems reluctant on digging the arctic air out to the coast.

[Storm]

EPS improved

[PortKells]

I mean these runs HAVE to start moderating fairly soon.

A slow moderation will happen as we lead up to the event and we will still be left in a fairly good spot. Given what we are seeing I would be satisfied with a regional version of Jan 2020 but wouldn't be surprised at better or worse.

I highly doubt this will be long lasting. As mentioned, too much cyclogenesis would blow that ridge up completely and eliminate the possibility for reloads. The ridge looks rather thin to begin with. That seems to be the theme lately anyways, minus maybe Dec 2021.

[Catnip]

EPS improved

12Z

240 12z.png

00Z

240 00z.png

[AbbyJr]

Looking December 1990 like. But I’m also getting some January 2020 vibes. Balancing act to avoid too much cyclogenesis when that energy digs west into the block.

If this verifies then that would mean three winters in a row with a top tier arctic blast. That's pretty darn good in our current climate.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12Z really juices up the arctic front. This all happens as the front sweeps in and drops temperatures below freezing. All snow down to sea level.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5060800.png

[PortKells]

GEM Ensemble seems reluctant on digging the arctic air out to the coast.

To me it looks like the EPS is struggling to get it out there too. For now.

[AbbyJr]

To me it looks like the EPS is struggling to get it out there too. For now.

The ensemble means often don't look as good as the deterministic runs because they are muted with both extremes. But they do give us a lot of insight into the range of possibilities. As of now, I'm liking the potential here but still much uncertainty with a bust still on the table.

[PortKells]

The ensemble means often don't look as good as the deterministic runs because they are muted with both extremes. But they do give us a lot of insight into the range of possibilities. As of now, I'm liking the potential here but still much uncertainty with a bust still on the table.

Yeah I agree but I prefer ensembles outside of maybe 4-5 days. I'm curious to see where it goes from here but I do prefer the EPS outside of 4-5 days.

I wouldn't go telling my friends yet. Other than one co-worker who now insists on having me as his weather man, for better or for worse (probably for the worse). However we have started to prepare the farm a bit, just in case.

[stuffradio]

After this mornings runs, I think It’s officially model riding time

I thought we were officially in model riding time...

[stuffradio]

ECMWF is taking a drink of the crazy kool-aid.

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4283200.png

[Bonovox]

Not much Lower Mainland snow though...

With that much cold air pouring out over the ocean, you are bound to get cyclogenesis and some form of surface low forming. Those details will sort themselves out. Get the cold air in first.

[Monty]

12Z really juices up the arctic front. This all happens as the front sweeps in and drops temperatures below freezing. All snow down to sea level.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5060800.png

Pretty Colors!