February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Dewpoints on Saturday have gone from this on the 12z UKMET...

12z.PNG

...to this on the 00z

00z.PNG

[Storm]

Like I said I still feel the pain from last bust. UKMET overpromise and underdeliver terribly.

[Catnip]

Dewpoints on Saturday have gone from this on the 12z UKMET...
12z.PNG
...to this on the 00z
00z.PNG

[wetcoast91]

More outflow, system splitting and perhaps the interior high has strengthened. Nito can provide more insight.

No, you nailed it. Interior cold pool is super continential and dry but the outflow leads to additional drying. Energy starts splitting ashore.

These are why continential arctic blasts never deliver here.

[Typeing3]

Looks like the 00z UKMET shows about 10-20cm across the lower mainland sunday night thru monday.

[Monty]

Hang on for the euro but wow things are trending south. I mean I guess that is a beastly dome of arctic air in the interior. You’d think old Mother Nature would let us just slip one low into the sweet spot one time.

[Catnip]

Hang on for the euro but wow things are trending south. I mean I guess that is a beastly dome of arctic air in the interior. You’d think old Mother Nature would let us just slip one low into the sweet spot one time.

Too much negative energy from the other team.

[Typeing3]

No, you nailed it. Interior cold pool is super continential and dry but the outflow leads to additional drying. Energy starts splitting ashore.

These are why continential arctic blasts never deliver here.

Yup, that's what I thought immediately after seeing those crazy low dewpoints compared with the prior run.

[Catnip]

Frig... the 18z Euro showed so much promise.

Even if the 00z comes in similar to the 18... can we trust it?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Frig... the 18z Euro showed so much promise.

Even if the 00z comes in similar to the 18... can we trust it?

The only trustworthy model is the GOLU.

[AbbyJr]

No, you nailed it. Interior cold pool is super continential and dry but the outflow leads to additional drying. Energy starts splitting ashore.

These are why continential arctic blasts never deliver here.

December 1996 and 2008 were continental blasts and they delivered.

[Typeing3]

There has been a small shift west with the PV over across the last few runs of the GFS. Western edge now inching towards western AB. It's pretty negligible but it could be playing a small roll in suppressing that system too.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh60_trend.gif

[Catnip]

The only trustworthy model is the GOLU.

Go
Outside
Look
Up

[AbbyJr]

Frig... the 18z Euro showed so much promise.

Even if the 00z comes in similar to the 18... can we trust it?

Yes because its one of the most reliable models. But whether or not it will keep the low in the sweet spot or cave to the other models remains to be seen.

[Monty]

Frig... the 18z Euro showed so much promise.

Even if the 00z comes in similar to the 18... can we trust it?

I wouldn’t. Trends are important. Even in lesser models.