January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

Hope not.

I hope not as well.

[Weather101]

Sounds pretty awesome. Are you in the downtown section near the Lake or a little ways away?

My place is right on the lake 5 minutes outside downtown. Beautiful area, but the wind is brutal since we're exposed. When it snows, it comes sideways and blinds you, lol. The windchill is brutal.

For reference, here's a photo from the summer of the view. 5 minute drive outside of downtown. The snow totals don't vary as much per say as Richmond to Ladner or Vancouver.

[AbbyJr]

Low of -11.5c in east Coquitlam. Looks like a slight inversion beginning to set up at night with the warming upper levels.

Currently -5.0c. Highs will probably be in the -3c/-2c range today given how fast the temp is shooting up.

Hopefully this doesn't mess up for our snow potential next week. We don't want to push out the arctic air too quick.

[Typeing3]

Hopefully this doesn't mess up for our snow potential next week. We don't want to push out the arctic air too quick.

It's a delicate setup. We'll see a quick transition to rain if that system tracks too far north with that push of modified arctic air into the interior having trouble sagging to the south.

[Forrest Gump]

My place is right on the lake 5 minutes outside downtown. Beautiful area, but the wind is brutal since we're exposed. When it snows, it comes sideways and blinds you, lol. The windchill is brutal.

For reference, here's a photo from the summer of the view. 5 minute drive outside of downtown. The snow totals don't vary as much per say as Richmond to Ladner or Vancouver.

Can you get your binoculars and see what's happening in Buffalo?

[AbbyJr]

It's a delicate setup. We'll see a quick transition to rain if that system tracks too far north with that push of modified arctic air into the interior having trouble sagging to the south.

If the low takes the right track it would pull in a fresh supply of modified arctic air, right?

[Weather101]

Can you get your binoculars and see what's happening in Buffalo?

A Sh*t load of snow

[Typeing3]

If the low takes the right track it would pull in a fresh supply of modified arctic air, right?

Yes, if it tracks to our south and phases with the incoming trough, but I'm not really seeing it on the 12z runs as compared with yesterday.

See the trend:

gfs_z500_vort_nwus_fh78_trend (1).gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh78_trend.gif

gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_fh78_trend (1).gif

[Weather101]

It's a delicate setup. We'll see a quick transition to rain if that system tracks too far north with that push of modified arctic air into the interior having trouble sagging to the south.

It's close.. can easily be a rain event

[wetcoast91]

Yes, if it tracks to our south and phases with the incoming trough, but I'm not really seeing it on the 12z runs as compared with yesterday.

See the trend:
gfs_z500_vort_nwus_fh78_trend (1).gif
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh78_trend.gif
gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_fh78_trend (1).gif

Yup. This feature was supposed to reinforce the upper levels and create a modified arctic boundary in the wake of the departing low. Snow totals would have been 20-25cm with clearing skies behind.

Now we are looking at a 5-10cm wet snow/slush event with post frontal rain showers and drizzle.

You take what you can get in an El Nino year though.

[VanCitySouth]

Yup. This feature was supposed to reinforce the upper levels and create a modified arctic boundary in the wake of the departing low. Snow totals would have been 20-25cm with clearing skies behind.

Now we are looking at a 5-10cm wet snow/slush event with post frontal rain showers and drizzle.

You take what you can get in an El Nino year though.

At this point I am expecting a <2cm then briefly ice pellets or ZR before eventually rain event. I'm basically mentally preparing for a worst case scenario.

[AbbyJr]

Yes, if it tracks to our south and phases with the incoming trough, but I'm not really seeing it on the 12z runs as compared with yesterday.

See the trend:
gfs_z500_vort_nwus_fh78_trend (1).gif
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh78_trend.gif
gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_fh78_trend (1).gif

We can only hope at this point.

[wetcoast91]

At this point I am expecting a <2cm then briefly ice pellets or ZR before eventually rain event. I'm basically mentally preparing for a worst case scenario.

NAM starts off as rain, turns to snow then ZR and rain.

[Typeing3]

NAM starts off as rain, turns to snow then ZR and rain.

Trendz =

namconus_T850_nwus_fh66_trend.gif

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh66_trend.gif

[wetcoast91]

Trendz =
namconus_T850_nwus_fh66_trend.gif
namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh66_trend.gif

You so badly wanted a January 2011 repeat.