August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

35.2C, 35.7C, 36.1C the past 3 days here. HOT . Skinny dipping weather for some.

Welcome back Mr. M been awhile. It's currently 23c @ midnight @ the pond in south Sardis.

[Monty]

That fire south of keremeos looks like it blew its top late this afternoon on visible satellite. Best wishes to people in that area. Fire weather will be nasty the next 2 days in southern BC

[Monty]

That fire south of keremeos looks like it blew its top late this afternoon on visible satellite. Best wishes to people in that area. Fire weather will be nasty the next 2 or 3 days in southern BC

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Will this be as bad as the Keremeos Creek fire from pretty much 1 year ago Mr. M.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Gotta be the pond. The one and only...pond.

Yes there's nothing like it Kells

IMG-20190609-WA0006.jpg

[Weather101]

[Weather101]

Yes please!

I second this! I don't like having to take screenshots! Was much easier when it automatically posted from Twitter.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Overnight low of 17.4°C here.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

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[stuffradio]

Crazy

[Mattman]

To get a plume like that begs the Captain Obvious Statement that that's rank 6 fire behaviour. I remember when the Okanagan Mountain Park fire would flare up to that extreme those pyrocumulonimbus plumes formed. Speaking of which, 20 years ago today that fire started.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/4 ... ago#440745

Edit: I wonder if it's densely packed Lodgepole pine forest and not merely comparatively thinly populated Poderosa pine to produce such a plume in the Okanagan. When a forest fire crowns from wind in a Lodgepole pine forest, it's a terrifying sight. Eventually the Okanagan Mountain Park fire crept up to Lodgepole pine forests like one sees on the Connector. Nothing you can do but stand back when that occurs.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Edit: I wonder if it's densely packed Lodgepole pine forest and not merely comparatively thinly populated Poderosa pine to produce such a plume in the Okanagan. When a forest fire crowns from wind in a Lodgepole pine forest, it's a terrifying sight. Eventually the Okanagan Mountain Park fire crept up to Lodgepole pine forests like one sees on the Connector. Nothing you can do but stand back when that occurs.

Yup. There is no such thing as a low-intensity ground fire in lodgepole pine. When those forests go, it is always catastrophic. Many of their cones require it to release their seeds (which germinate best in bare, burned soil), in fact. Come back to a lodgepole pine forest five years after it burns and there will be a green carpet of saplings coming up amidst the blackened trunks.

[Monty]

Models trying to form another Rex block along the coast next week. Strong ridge centered along the BC coast and a near stationary upper low off of the US west coast. That pattern could bring some warm moist air northward with potential thunderstorms in southern BC. But if the ridge is stronger and the ULL is suppressed more south it could bring another spell of hot and dry weather to much of the province.

[Monty]

To get a plume like that begs the Captain Obvious Statement that that's rank 6 fire behaviour. I remember when the Okanagan Mountain Park fire would flare up to that extreme those pyrocumulonimbus plumes formed. Speaking of which, 20 years ago today that fire started.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/4 ... ago#440745

Edit: I wonder if it's densely packed Lodgepole pine forest and not merely comparatively thinly populated Poderosa pine to produce such a plume in the Okanagan. When a forest fire crowns from wind in a Lodgepole pine forest, it's a terrifying sight. Eventually the Okanagan Mountain Park fire crept up to Lodgepole pine forests like one sees on the Connector. Nothing you can do but stand back when that occurs.

I assume the two fires south of Keremeos merged last night. Yesterday they were listed as a combined ~1000ha. This morning it is shown at an estimated 10,000 ha.

[Bonovox]

Thursday has the potential to get ugly in the interior as some lightning moves through with very little rainfall.