January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

GEM and GFS.
Screenshot_20240116_075649_Samsung Internet.jpg
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:46 am Kuss on radio 20 - 30 cm if all snow.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

GFS looks 🧊
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

12z GFS
56C4D444-DB7C-4D52-93F0-924886A9188C.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Canada Goose wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:17 am Typeing, 20-30 cm for Western Banana Belt? :flakey:
I'll say 15-20cm for now based on what i saw on last night's runs. Haven't had much chance to look at the models this AM. If they are then 20cm+ could be possible.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:03 am I'll say 15-20cm for now based on what i saw on last night's runs. Haven't had much chance to look at the models this AM. If they are then 20cm+ could be possible.
Most models are in the 20-25 range now. Hopefully we get higher than 10:1 ratio.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Storm wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:05 am Most models are in the 20-25 range now. Hopefully we get higher than 10:1 ratio.
C’mon 30cm!

That would give this winter a very high rating, considering the gloomy outlook for this season.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png
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gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Storm wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:05 am Most models are in the 20-25 range now. Hopefully we get higher than 10:1 ratio.
I think Environment Canada might need to up their forecast totals from 10-20cm to 20-30cm based on latest model runs.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by arbetrader »

It's my daughter's birthday tomorrow - having snow would make it an A+ considering we're in an El Nino year. The last cold snap/snow we had on her birthday (IIRC) was 2012. I'm really hoping we don't get much in the way of ZR (in between fronts), I have a feeling it won't be much if we do.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Models increasingly show extreme westernmost sections doing less well. I wonder if that's because of a lack of precip or poorer snow ratios, or maybe "terrain" bleed of the strait.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:01 am GFS looks 🧊 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png
No onshore surface winds until early Saturday. Could see Eastern most sections of the Valley holding onto ice until then.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

VanCitySouth wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:32 am Models increasingly show extreme westernmost sections doing less well. I wonder if that's because of a lack of precip or poorer snow ratios, or maybe "terrain" bleed of the strait.
Yeah it’s probably just like UBC and anything directly against the water. Everyone else should be good, I hope. Gonna start getting busy in here soon!
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Wow! Models seem to have trended a notch colder overnight. At this stage, 20–30 cm is a good bet, with the heavier amounts in eastern areas.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:19 am hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png

gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5536000.png
Looks like the lower elevations actually do better than the mountains on that hrdps.
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