January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Im pretty sure i remember seeing 2 fronts (North and South) come together over SW coastal BC a few years ago...didnt we have forecast for big snow and it busted out to 1cm and then mild rain? and

I don't think we observed that patern before.

[PortKells]

Im pretty sure i remember seeing 2 fronts (North and South) come together over SW coastal BC a few years ago...didnt we have forecast for big snow and it busted out to 1cm and then mild rain? and

December 19 2017 maybe?

[PortKells]

But i am kinda worried lol. Won't the power of EN win out?

There is always a chance for a bust. This one is quite low with the model agreement but you never know.

[Catnip]

There is always a chance for a bust. This one is quite low with the model agreement but you never know.

Ya, this certainly doesn't seem like one of those "thread the needle" type snowfalls. Of course nothing is ever certain with snowfalls around here but I'm feeling good about this one.

[Hawk]

December 19 2017 maybe?

coulda been..i dunno tbh. But i recall the sat imagery looked eerily similar to this mornings

[PortKells]

Ya, this certainly doesn't seem like one of those "thread the needle" type snowfalls. Of course nothing is ever certain with snowfalls around here but I'm feeling good about this one.

You can never really be more than 90% confident. That’s part of the thrill I suppose.

[VanCitySouth]

Cloud keeping a lid on temperatures this morning is glorious

Between 9 and 10 AM yesterday, YVR increased 2.3C
Between 9 and 10 AM today, YVR increased only 0.6C

Between 10 and 11 AM yesterday, YVR increased 2.2C
Between 10 and 11 AM today, YVR increased only 1.1C

As a result we are now only 0.4C warmer than yesterday at this hour

[wetcoast91]

You can never really be more than 90% confident. That’s part of the thrill I suppose.

I remember one major bust occuring in 2002 or 2003. We were expecting 15cm-20cm with a messy morning commute. Some flurries started falling the evening but precip with the warm front just never made it's way inland. Woke up to bare ground and cloudy skies.

[Catnip]

Between 10 and 11 AM yesterday, YVR increased 2.2C
Between 10 and 11 AM today, YVR increased only 1.1C

As a result we are now only 0.4C warmer than yesterday at this hour

Also important are the dew points. Keep an eye on those as well.

[VanCitySouth]

Also important are the dew points. Keep an eye on those as well.

Wet bulb still very much in the -2.5 to -3 range

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Ya, this certainly doesn't seem like one of those "thread the needle" type snowfalls. Of course nothing is ever certain with snowfalls around here but I'm feeling good about this one.

It was yesterday but not any more. Low trended south a bit and has given us a margin of safety.

[Catnip]

The temperature dropped below freezing imby last Thursday around 11am. Here we are Tuesday 11am and the temperature has not gone above freezing.

Exactly 5 days (calculated time wise) without going above freezing.

Who would have expected this just a month ago. As much as I had hoped, I didn't expect it, but here we are.

El Torcho be damned... this January is a winner in my books.

Screenshot 2024-01-16 at 11-20-25 Calculate Duration Between Two Dates – Results.png

[Vancouver]

Just me or is Thursday now looking colder than Wednesday?

[Hawk]

It was yesterday but not any more. Low trended south a bit and has given us a margin of safety.

"Correction" Models show the Low trending south. Where it actually ends up..not 100% sure. Especially with that bobbling shown just offshore

[Storm]

Just me or is Thursday now looking colder than Wednesday?

Trending south slowly.