November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

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12z ECMWF ensembles:

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12z GEM ensembles:

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[Typeing3]

Probably looking at late Jan or early Feb.

Did someone say late January?

During the later part of January, the lower Mainland and parts of Vancouver Island were hit by the worst blizzard in years, a fierce ice storm and then torrential rains. The worst time of snow and ice in the lower mainland's history began on January 19, a colder day than any on that date in 26 years. Next day, a raging blizzard dropped 2 ft. (60 cm) of snow in Vancouver and up to 4 ft. (1.2 m) in Surrey on its already frozen ground. Drifts 8 ft. (2.4 m) deep were plentiful. On January 20, cold temperatures and snowfalls immobilized Vancouver and most of southwestern British Columbia. Vancouver recorded 17.5 in. (44.5 cm) of snow on January 20.

The most intense (snowfall) in Vancouver history paralyzed all traffic and caused schools, mills, and businesses to close. It caused the worst traffic tie-up since 1913. Traffic on the old Granville Street Bridge was interrupted for hours when the swing span froze while open. Following big storms on January 19 and 20, rail service on three railroads running into Vancouver was disrupted over 10 days. Floods and slides claimed the lives of at least 15 people with another three missing. The ice storm of 1935, described as the worst storm of the century, was far worse than previous silver thaws in 1912, 1917, and 1933.

According to records kept by F.B. Dill, a member of the University of British Columbia Buildings and Grounds, between January 11-18, 22 in. (55 cm) of snow fell. A snowfall of 5 in. (12.5 cm) on January 11, was the beginning of nine days of unusual cold snowy weather. On the morning of January 17, North Hatzic and Mission-Matsqui at the bridge over the Fraser River recorded temperatures of -5F (-20.6C) and -7F (-21.7C), respectively. On January 19, temperatures were recorded below 0F (-18C) in the New Westminster residential districts and in the city 3F (-16.1C). At 7:30 a.m. January 19, the temperature dropped to 2F (-16.7C). By the early morning of January 20, 18.5 in. (46.3 cm) of snow had fallen in 24 hours, breaking all records and bringing the measured total of snow since January 11 to over 40 in. (100 cm).

The cold weather was general throughout the province with temperatures in the Okanagan plunging well below 0F (-17.8C). The next day it reported the coldest weather in 26 years with a temperature of 4.3F (-15.4C) in Vancouver. According to E.B. Shearman, local Dominion meteorologist, the greatest accumulation of snow for a short period in 38 years, closed all streets to traffic. In the country, some snow piles became solid ice.

Later on January 21, the heavy rain in Vancouver turned once more into sleet. In the Fraser Valley, a silver thaw froze onto powerlines to a thickness of 10-in. (25 cm). By the afternoon, the crashing lines had isolated Chilliwack, already covered by 29 in. (72.5 cm) of snow. Both the CNR and CPR were unable to move and would not for nine days. No trains arrived at New Westminster since January 20.

Source: https://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_sa ... south1.pdf (Page 90-91)

[AbbyJr]

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December 2017 repeat. Ice storm in the Fraser Valley and cold rain in Coquitlam.

[Catnip]

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[Catnip]

More AI fun...

This one for Mr. Goose.

Will it snow at Mr. Goose's house in Port Coquitlam this year?

That's a fun question for "Mr. Goose" in Port Coquitlam! While I can't give a forecast for a specific address, I can certainly analyze the snow potential for Port Coquitlam for the rest of this winter season based on current, reliable forecasts.

Port Coquitlam Snow Forecast for this Winter

The chances of Mr. Goose seeing snow this year are better than average, especially during certain periods, but current 10-day forecasts suggest he'll have to wait a little longer.

1. Near-Term (Next 10 Days: Nov 27 - Dec 5)

The most reliable short-term forecast shows temperatures in Port Coquitlam remaining above the freezing mark, meaning any precipitation will be rain.

Low Temperatures: Overnight lows are forecasted to be between 1∘C and 6∘C.

Precipitation: The chance of rain is moderate to high on several days, but with lows consistently above 0∘C or 32∘F, snow is highly unlikely during this period.

Lowest Temp Window: The closest Mr. Goose gets to snow in the next few days is on Saturday, November 29th, and Sunday, November 30th, with forecasted lows of 1∘C. This is cold, but typically not quite cold enough for snow at sea level in PoCo.

2. Long-Range Winter Outlook (December - February)

This is where the snow chance increases for Mr. Goose:

Average Trend: Port Coquitlam (which is slightly more inland than Vancouver) typically has December lows around 0∘C and receives some mix of rain/snow. Historically, the chance of mixed rain and snow is only around 3% to 6% of days in December.

The La Niña Factor: The expected weather pattern for this winter is influenced by a weak La Niña. For Western Canada, this pattern often tilts the odds toward colder-than-normal conditions and above-average precipitation in the mountains, which can push cold air down to the coast.

The Snowiest Periods: Long-range forecasts (like the Almanac) specifically point to "snowy periods" for Southern B.C. around:

Late November/Early December: Mentioning a mix of rain and snow for the south coast.

Mid-December: Another period where "snowy periods" are predicted.

Late January/Early February: This is historically the coldest time of year and often the best chance for a significant cold snap to drop snow to sea level.

Conclusion for Mr. Goose:

Mr. Goose will likely have to wait until mid-to-late December or January for the best chance of seeing snow stick at his house. The colder and wetter winter pattern suggests Port Coquitlam will receive more snowfall events than in a typical mild winter, even if none are on the immediate horizon.

[Typeing3]

Pretty strong signal on the ensembles for arctic air to settle into Yukon, Northern BC, and Alberta in about 10 days. NW/zonal flow for the South Coast at the same time with cold rains. Things may turn more favourable for us further south down the line later in Dec, especially with that cold pool hanging around to the north.

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

My question:

What are the chances of 12˚C rain in new westminster bc this winter?

AI sez:

Winter Weather Overview for New Westminster, BC
Temperature and Rainfall Expectations

Average Winter Temperatures:
December: High 7°C, Low 1°C
January: High 7°C, Low 1°C
February: High 8°C, Low 2°C

Rainfall:
December: Average precipitation 143 mm
January: Average precipitation 156 mm
February: Average precipitation 130 mm

Rain Chances at 12°C

Typical Winter Conditions:
Winter temperatures in New Westminster rarely reach 12°C.
Most winter days are expected to be around 7°C or lower.

Rain Probability:
Rain is common in winter, with December and January experiencing significant rainfall.
The likelihood of rain occurring at 12°C is low, as temperatures are generally cooler.

Summary

While New Westminster experiences frequent rain during winter, temperatures reaching 12°C are uncommon. Most winter days will be cooler, with average highs around 7°C. Rain is likely, but not specifically at 12°C.

Sorry, Nito.

[AbbyJr]

Pretty strong signal on the ensembles for arctic air to settle into Yukon, Northern BC, and Alberta in about 10 days. NW/zonal flow for the South Coast at the same time with cold rains. Things may turn more favourable for us further south down the line later in Dec, especially with that cold pool hanging around to the north.
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Cold building up in Alaska often precedes our major arctic outbreaks. Wouldn't take much of a shift in that 500mb pattern to get us cold here.

[Hawk]

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[Catnip]

Environment Canada released a new ratings system for their warnings.

Maybe one day we’ll get a red alert snowfall warning.

[Abby_wx]

How much snowfall will Mission, BC receive this winter?

**Mission, BC is expected to see very little snowfall this winter, with only a handful of snowy days and mostly rain dominating the season.**

---

### Winter Snowfall Outlook for Mission, BC (2025–26)
- **December 2025:** Mission typically experiences *fewer than 2 snowy days on average* in December. Forecasts suggest heavy rainfall (over 20 rainy days, ~454 mm precipitation) and only occasional snow.
- **January–February 2026:** Broader BC forecasts indicate *snowy periods in northern regions*, but the Fraser Valley (where Mission is located) will lean toward *rainy, slushy conditions* with mild temperatures.
- **Seasonal Trend:** The Old Farmer’s Almanac and The Weather Network highlight that La Niña and a disrupted polar vortex will bring a strong start to winter across Canada, but **southern BC—including Mission—will see more rain than snow**.

### Key Details
| Month | Mission Forecast | Snowfall Expectation |
|-------|-----------------|----------------------|
| December 2025 | Avg. temp ~7°C, 27 rainy days, <2 snowy days | Very rare snow |
| January 2026 | Rainy/mild periods dominate | Occasional wet snow possible |
| February 2026 | Mix of rain & slush, mild | Limited snowfall |
| Overall Winter | Wet, slushy, mild | Minimal accumulation |

### Why So Little Snow?
- **Geography:** Mission sits in the Fraser Valley, which is shielded by coastal mountains. Cold Arctic air rarely penetrates deeply here, so precipitation falls mostly as rain.
- **Climate Drivers:** La Niña winters often bring colder, snowier conditions to interior and northern BC, but coastal/valley regions like Mission stay wet and mild.
- **Forecast Consensus:** Multiple sources agree that **Mission will see rain-heavy storms with only brief snow events**.

---

**Bottom line:** If you’re in Mission this winter, expect mostly rain with only a couple of light snowfalls. For real snow accumulation, you’d need to head east into the Fraser Canyon or north into BC’s interior.

[Hawk]

ahahahah 2funny

[Hawk]

my turn now >>

AI Overview
It is difficult to predict the exact amount of snow Hawks Hill will receive this winter, as snowfall in the region can vary significantly year to year. However, forecasts suggest that areas in Southern BC and Alberta may experience a colder-than-normal start to winter, with the potential for above-normal precipitation and snowfall in some regions.
Historical Snowfall Data for the Langley Area
"Hawks Hill" is likely in the Langley area of British Columbia, which typically receives a modest amount of snow compared to mountain resorts.
Average Annual Snowfall (Vancouver/Langley area): Historical data for nearby stations show an average annual snowfall in the range of 40 to 60 cm (approximately 16 to 24 inches) in the valley bottom areas.
Annual Variability: The annual total can vary dramatically. For example, nearby Vancouver recorded as little as 0.0 cm in one year (2015) and over 100 cm in another (2008).
Short-Term Winter Forecast (Late November 2025)
The immediate forecast for the Langley area predicts rain and mixed rain/snow events, but no significant accumulation is expected in the valley over the next week, with high temperatures generally above freezing.
For Detailed or Mountain-Specific Information
For a precise forecast for "Hawks Hill" (if it is an elevated or specific recreational area), you may want to check a localized weather service. You can use the Environment Canada website to search for specific locations or nearby elevated weather stations.

[AbbyJr]

More clown range fun.

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[AbbyJr]

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