January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hmmm…
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-refc_ptype-4834000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-4834000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t925-4834000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-4855600.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Bonovox
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

00z GFS. :alert:

Snow moves in Tuesday morning right around 0400am.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:48 pm 00z GFS. :alert:

Snow moves in Tuesday morning right around 0400am.
Continues into Tuesday afternoon and picks up in intensity around 1pm local.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:50 pm Continues into Tuesday afternoon and picks up in intensity around 1pm local.
Lasts into late Tuesday evening.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:51 pm Lasts into late Tuesday evening.
24 hour total for round 1. Again these values are kinda useless this far out, but fun to look at.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:39 pm GC7_Go-XYAAc4Ey.jpeg


GC7_zoUWwAA7_59.jpeg


GC7_7tBXcAADQnp.jpeg



Source: https://twitter.com/commoditywx
What gives me more confidence about this pattern verifying is the off the charts -NAO. Seems to me that it's driving the -PNA pattern. This has SSW written all over it. Models split the PV and a very strong -NAO develops and forces high latitude blocking. This could actually work out for us.

That said, there is still time for this to bust and while I am obviously biased, I think there is a good chance of an exciting winter event here.

:team: :chilly: :snowman:
Last edited by AbbyJr on Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:02 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

00z GFS :alert:

Round 2 begins late Wednesday evening around 10pm local time.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Long range turns this into a 2020 event. Southern Washington and Oregon get so badly screwed.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 pm 00z GFS :alert:

Round 2 begins late Wednesday evening around 10pm local time.
Continues into Thursday morning and picks up in intensity briefly.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Sunday GEFS

18z = -5.4c
00z = -6.3c

FWIW
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 pm 00z GFS :alert:

Round 2 begins late Wednesday evening around 10pm local time.
Round 2 totals. Including 10:1 and Kuchera ratio maps.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 pm Long range turns this into a 2020 event. Southern Washington and Oregon get so badly screwed.
Image
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 pm Long range turns this into a 2020 event. Southern Washington and Oregon get so badly screwed.
But Seattle does get something on this run, unlike in Jan 2020.
gfs-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-5384800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:57 pm Round 2 totals. Including 10:1 and Kuchera ratio maps.
The 2 event total using the 10:1 ratio map.

For entertainment purposes. I can’t believe I have to say that on a weather forum, but here we are.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:01 pm The 2 event total using the 10:1 ratio map.

For entertainment purposes. I can’t believe I have to say that on a weather forum, but here we are.
Poor Sardineman, only 7 cm.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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