February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Always so pessimistic

Just reporting what the models are currently saying.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Total GFS snow as the front comes in (some of what is shown in Seattle is phantom snow).

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-7024000.png

The 12Z takes that away. Would post the map, but it’s meaningless since it only shows phantom snow modelled to fall at surface temperatures of 2–4˚C.

[PortKells]

Bah. After the dream that was December 18, I guess we're back to our traditional dry arctic fronts.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Bah. After the dream that was December 18, I guess we're back to our traditional dry arctic fronts.

Don’t forget the December 2021 non-dry blast on Christmas Eve night. Have done pretty well recently. Can’t win ’em all.

[wetcoast91]

Bah. After the dream that was December 18, I guess we're back to our traditional dry arctic fronts.

Higher sun angles lead to drier inland conditions. There's also less snow cover in the interior so that will work against any saturation at the lower levels. Continental airmasses run a little bit warmer and drier after late Jan.

You really need to hope for an over the water trajectory this time of year. The higher solar radiation works with the instability over the warmer waters to lead to be better precip development over land.

[PortKells]

Don’t forget the December 2021 non-dry blast on Christmas Eve night. Have done pretty well recently. Can’t win ’em all.

Yep that one was pretty good. Also December 18 was modelled to be next to nothing so we will see.n

[wetcoast91]

Next week looks rather dry according to the Euro.

Lots and lots but filtered at times.

[PortKells]

Next week looks rather dry according to the Euro.

Lots and lots but filtered at times.

Yep. Still many more runs to go luckily.

[wetcoast91]

Yep. Still many more runs to go luckily.

Could be worse. I need to prep the garden and trim the overgrowth around the property.

I am also adding a rock bed to divert more moisture off my property.

[Glacier]

Higher sun angles lead to drier inland conditions.

This is true, but I'm not sure I understand why.

February is AMAZINGLY dry in the interior, especially in the eastern sections of the Chilcotin plateau where it's well under 10mm. March is similarly dry. No other months anywhere in BC is as dry as Riske Creek (Wineglass Ranch) is in February and March, not even in Ashcroft which is the driest place in Canada outside of the high arctic.

FEBPREC2.png

[John]

I guess the inevitable rugpull has started

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (12).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (13).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (14).png

[Typeing3]

20230216211654-30b434d1bd0cfbd9fb03708fd0963aa2b6004eed.png

[Hawk]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (12).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (13).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (14).png

"Transient troff" Here today, gone tomorrow..and Dry like the Similkameens Dry Desert air in mid summer

[Hawk]

Clouds to the NW have a very omnious look to them today. Overcast..looks like Snow Clouds to me
Cool temps today and low dew points. Wet Bulb in effect later today?

Tell Em WPro!!