January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

To be fair, it's very rare for the Euro to fail at 120hrs and for at least several runs, the GFS was a big outlier.

Its ok buttees. The models are understandably struggling with the Mid/LR deets during this noticeable #patternshift. I'm sure the picture will become much more clear in the next several days. I'm still thinking a NW chilly flow/dry arctic outbreak towards the end of this month

#climo

[tyweather]

This would be one hell of a blizzard on the east coast

[Canada Goose]

The real looser in all this are the mountains.

That's the worst thing of our miserable winter...

[Roberts Creeker]

Phantom cold or real cold??? I like the Met Notes.

Past 24 hour high and low were within 4 hours, high at 3 pm 6.3c low at 7 pm 1.2 c.

[wetcoast91]

That's the worst thing of our miserable winter...

I expected a 2007-08 kind of winter. A super ENSO outcome like 2015-16 was probably the last thing I envisioned and the fact that every long-range climate modeling got this so wrong is insane.

Phil can find every excuse in the book but this is climate change in action.

[Typeing3]

The streamers that come down the Strait from NW to SE are my faves.

Very sharp gradient with those. UBC, YVR, Ladner, Tsawwassen, White Rock could get 20-30cm while Inland areas have less than 10cm. Last time we saw something like that was early Feb 2019, but late Feb 2018 also had that setup of the extreme variety as it was very notable. 2cm in east Coquitlam and 20cm+ near Boundary Bay as temps were sufficiently cold enough, we had a weak slider down the coast, and the winds aligned perfectly.

Give me a stalled surface low in the strait during a period of cold onshore flow. January 27th, 2002 repeat.

[Typeing3]

I expected a 2007-08 kind of winter. A super ENSO outcome like 2015-16 was probably the last thing I envisioned and the fact that every long-range climate modeling got this so wrong is insane.

Phil can find every excuse in the book but this is climate change in action.

2005-06 and 1966-67 were among the top analogues for this winter, and they have been bang on thus far.

[Hound]

We need at least one major arctic event this year/season. We need to kill off the bugs and we need more snow-pack for the mountains!!

[wetcoast91]

2005-06 and 1966-67 were among the top analogues for this winter, and they have been bang on thus far.

Similar but not quite. We did have a polar maritime airmass deliver some wet snow to higher areas in early December 2005. Had some modified arctic air that lead into an inversion a week after. We also had a few good ARs in that winter as well.

This NDJ period has featured zero arctic air. RH has probably been over 70% the entire time.

[Hawk]

Similar but not quite. We did have a polar maritime airmass deliver some wet snow to higher areas in early December 2005. Had some modified arctic air that lead into an inversion a week after. We also had a few good ARs in that winter as well.

This NDJ period has featured zero arctic air. RH has probably been over 70% the entire time.

yup..its been very sad. Thank you for the continual reminders of how sad it is week after week Nito!

[Hawk]

Updated Score:

Nito 6
#TeamSnow 0

[Catnip]

Well we still have #FEB

cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202502_1.png

[Weather101]

Is this really needed as a note? Come on now... it's embarrassing to say this is cold at plus 3.

[wetcoast91]

Odds are looking good for a rather impressive snowstorm for the Texas panhandle and Northern Florida.

[Roberts Creeker]

Odds are looking good for a rather impressive snowstorm for the Texas panhandle and Northern Florida.

Well the answer's obvious! If you want snow, move to Florida!