February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Some showers of cold rain here. :cancel: :flakey:
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Weather101
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:11 am Touch too mild this AM. Snow level remains near 300m. May drop to 150m tonight.

Looks sunny on Wednesday now as the low goes into Central Oregon.

Scattered flurries maybe above 100m on Thurs. We gradually warm up before the weekend. +10C rain returns. :thumbup:
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:21 am Some showers of cold rain here. :cancel: :flakey:
:alert:
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Hawk
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

HFS for later today:
Rain beginning this afternoon. Slush mixed with rain beginning this afternoon at higher levels. Look out the window this afternoon if you are above 100m, or go for a drive to check for window splats :lol: :lol:
5-10mm of slush accumulation possible
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Some snow in the Valley and eastern suburbs tonight on the short-term models.
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1351200.png
nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1351200.png
hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1318800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Hawk
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

now we see why Storm never stopped by. Fool me once... :think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:39 am Some snow in the Valley and eastern suburbs tonight on the short-term models.

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1351200.png
nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1351200.png
hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1318800.png
probably predicting some convective streamers coming in from the SW. Crap shoot for location, but i like where im at iibh
We need to see some potent cells for any hope buttees
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Euro looks good for Vancouver proper tonight, but it is the only model with this snowfall distribution, and at this time frame the short-term high-res models usually beat it in accuracy.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1351200.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:43 am Euro looks good for Vancouver proper tonight, but it is the only model with this snowfall distribution, and at this time frame the short-term high-res models usually beat it in accuracy.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1351200.png
Temp map?
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:43 am Euro looks good for Vancouver proper tonight, but it is the only model with this snowfall distribution, and at this time frame the short-term high-res models usually beat it in accuracy.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1351200.png
Yeah I’d love for the euro snow maps to win one but we know better at this point.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:45 amTemp map?
All plausible for snow in the areas where it is modelled tonight. Surface temps in the 0–1˚C range.

Warmer in areas where snow is not modelled so looks like a heavy precip drags down the snow level type scenario.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

I think Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be our best chance. Fraser outflow will ensure that temperature is not an issue.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1527600.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1527600.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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wetcoast91
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 9:06 am I think Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be our best chance. Fraser outflow will ensure that temperature is not an issue.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1527600.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1527600.png
Temps look good buf Euro is over modeling precip as usual. Icon looked to have a good track that would bring more precip into Western Metro Van.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:39 am Some snow in the Valley and eastern suburbs tonight on the short-term models.

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1351200.png
nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1351200.png
hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1318800.png
I will give flake by flake reports tonight.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Feb 16, 2026 9:12 am Temps look good buf Euro is over modeling precip as usual. Icon looked to have a good track that would bring more precip into Western Metro Van.
There’s a couple of runs I saw that I’m surprised you didn’t post, they dumped everything into the straight :lol:
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