January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 0319648130

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

From Twitter:

GEFMcdEbsAAes6Y.png

[Typeing3]

23 cm total, might be a bit more because I didn't clear and measure the amounts. A slight breeze has come up and snow is dropping off the trees.

Very happily surprised by EC hourly forecast from 4 pm though tomorrow. They're saying snow will be around tomorrow and more incoming.

They did a good job predicting the snow times so far... Anyone else predicting snow tomorrow?

HRDPS shows light snow beginning around 4pm tomorrow, transitioning to rain overnight. Freezing rain for the valley.

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 0319648130

The January 1971 storm was incredible. 100cm+ in just over four days in Vancouver.

[Catnip]

https://x.com/lmainwx/status/1747759482 ... roCkvf0KsQ

[Weather101]

[AbbyJr]

The last El Nino ended up half decent due to a SSW as well. Those will always have potential to keep us in the ball game.

Are you referring to 2018/19? Yes, that winter was saved in February due to the SSW event. However, that El Niño was weak. This one is strong.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Meanwhile, Toronto’s biggest snowfall so far this season is 5.6 cm and Montreal’s is 21.8 cm.

https://toronto.weatherstats.ca/charts/snow-daily.html
https://montreal.weatherstats.ca/charts/snow-daily.html

[Bonovox]

I think it's done for the day. Time to do one last snow clear and salt the driveway. What a great day.

[Hound]

Ok, here is my official measurement:
33cm
Current temp: -2.9 (Falling)
DP: -4

Very very light snow. It's basically ending now.

20240117_153008.jpg

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Boom, we hit 30.5cm.

Thanks for sacrificing that pipe in the terminal!

[Catnip]

Meanwhile, Toronto’s biggest snowfall so far this season is 5.6 cm and Montreal’s is 21.8 cm.

https://toronto.weatherstats.ca/charts/snow-daily.html
https://montreal.weatherstats.ca/charts/snow-daily.html

[Hound]

My car under a blanket of snow.

20240117_153411.jpg

[Feetz of Snow]

We received 30 cm
My weather app says 38 cm

[AbbyJr]

Phil on the American Forums says another cold period in February is unlikely. His reasoning is that the atmosphere is no longer in a pre SSW state and that the climo response to phase 7 of the MJO is significantly weakened by late January. He said that while another cold snap is not impossible, there is really no support for it and therefore, there is no reason to forecast it. Now I will say the PV is expected to rapidly strengthen, so perhaps Phil is right on this one. But having said that, there are signals in some of the long range models for more high latitude blocking. The way this winter is going so far, there is no way to know exactly what will happen. But even if this is all the winter we get this season, it was very satisfying.

I'd like to add that in my opinion, this is by far the best January we have had in the 21st century. Way better than both 2012, 2017, and 2020.