October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

[Typeing3]

20221018094823-321706da97cff236eec8d4a583d9be6214c7e2bf.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Bring on the rain and storms

Watch a Kannuckle game lately Weeder man thats a storm.
It's currently 8c @ the pond in south Sardis super smoky out.

[stuffradio]

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... nto-winter

[Catnip]

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... nto-winter

Scenario A Please!

Scenario_A.jpg

[BhamMe]

Another quick change to fall coming. Late heat signals cold start to winter. The seasons always seem to balance with each other. Wet spring equal dry summers. I think this might be an eventful winter. We will see how the ridges hold out but the nature of averages says it will be a cool winter and a bit wet.

My 90 year old father has seen plenty of winters here in the NW and he says the same. If the summer is very dry, fall will be very wet so we'll see if the theory holds.

[Bonovox]

Scenario A Please!

Yes please.

[Bonovox]

A bizarre progression on the 12Z GFS. It wants to pump up a ridge east of the Rockies, which kind of leaves us in no man's land. I don't know what to make of it. Probably model noise and it is struggling to pick up on the pattern change.

[Bonovox]

12Z GEM is still a gem.

[Bonovox]

A bizarre progression on the 12Z GFS. It wants to pump up a ridge east of the Rockies, which kind of leaves us in no man's land. I don't know what to make of it. Probably model noise and it is struggling to pick up on the pattern change.

[Typeing3]

A bizarre progression on the 12Z GFS. It wants to pump up a ridge east of the Rockies, which kind of leaves us in no man's land. I don't know what to make of it. Probably model noise and it is struggling to pick up on the pattern change.

Lots of volatility on the GFS recently. ECMWF has been a lot more consistent.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Lots of volatility on the GFS recently. ECMWF has been a lot more consistent.

Plus it’s in clown range, so not really much sense in getting worked up about it.

[Bonovox]

Clown range or not, it is interesting to follow model progression. Anyhow, the 12Z GEFS agrees that the Op is a bit out to lunch, to say the least.

[Bonovox]

Lots of volatility on the GFS recently. ECMWF has been a lot more consistent.

The Euro has definitely been in a class of it's own. Unsurprisingly.

[PortKells]

My 90 year old father has seen plenty of winters here in the NW and he says the same. If the summer is very dry, fall will be very wet so we'll see if the theory holds.

At this point it would take something absurd to make this any more than an average fall precip wise. I guess last November would do it but that would suck lots.