November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Well it's been fun, but the GFS came to it's senses.

I'll wait until tomorrows 12Z run before assuming we aren't getting a 50 and 60's style arctic blast.

[PortKells]

I'll wait until tomorrows 12Z run before assuming we aren't getting a 50 and 60's style arctic blast.

The ensembles are correcting too, and it paints an ugly picture consistent with the other models. GOA troughing, non-stop ARs, no mountain snow. This is shaping up to be a dud so far. These patterns are hard to break. And nothing about fall screamed "big winter coming". La Ninas fail probably 70% of the time, we got spoiled by 2016/2021/2022/23.

[wetcoast91]

I'll wait until tomorrows 12Z run before assuming we aren't getting a 50 and 60's style arctic blast.

Only 50's and 60's we are going to see are the temps in F.

The ensembles are correcting too, and it paints an ugly picture consistent with the other models. GOA troughing, non-stop ARs, no mountain snow. This is shaping up to be a dud so far. These patterns are hard to break. And nothing about fall screamed "big winter coming". La Ninas fail probably 70% of the time, we got spoiled by 2016/2021/2022/23.

We do not see the impacts of an ENSO winter until the FMA period. NDJ in our new climate is largely dominated by the AL or West Coast Ridging. That's just the harsh reality. True zonal flows are becoming rather rare.

[Storm]

Snow showers possible at higher elevations, after midnight.

[AbbyJr]

The ensembles are correcting too, and it paints an ugly picture consistent with the other models. GOA troughing, non-stop ARs, no mountain snow. This is shaping up to be a dud so far. These patterns are hard to break. And nothing about fall screamed "big winter coming". La Ninas fail probably 70% of the time, we got spoiled by 2016/2021/2022/23.

I wouldn't call it a dud yet but I do agree that there have been no credible signs of a significant cold and snowy pattern in any of the model runs. Also, 2023/24 was an El Niño winter that worked out for us in January because of the SSW/PV split. But not all SSW's split the PV and not all SSW's work out for us. My guess is that if we are going to get cold and or snow this winter it will be around the late month through mid January period.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

2.3c currently @ the lake in Harrison with high tin cloud currently.

[stuffradio]

We’re now in Meteorological Winter as of tomorrow. You can’t call for forks yet. It’s crazy how big of a temperature swing there was just 10 minutes away from my house. I drove about 10-13 minutes away from my house towards Chilliwack lake. My back yard was around 7C but it was around 1C where I drove to and there was frost on the ground. I also saw a sign that warned snowmobiles to check for avalanche conditions.

[Hawk]

All other models suggest that it’s BS. We’ve done this song and dance before.

I know. Looks great tho almost every day

[Hawk]

The blind squirrel in this instance doesn't even have limbs.

[Hawk]

6” on the ground in the Similks today.. looks nice. More coming tomorrow. Chilly. Brrrr. Better than 0cms!

[Typeing3]

My guess is that if we are going to get cold and or snow this winter it will be around the late month through mid January period.

Agreed -- that's timeframe to look for anything notable (cold/snow) this winter, IMO.

And if that falls through... we always have February!

[wetcoast91]

Started raining up at Cypress overnight. EC is using AI again because real time data and models didn't show anything close to snow happening below 2500m.

[AbbyJr]

Agreed -- that's timeframe to look for anything notable (cold/snow) this winter, IMO.

And if that falls through... we always have February!

February 2017!

[Hawk]

from NWS:

November in Seattle was a warm one. The average monthly
temperature of 48.6 degrees was 2.1 degrees above normal. This
is the 7th warmest November in 81 years of records. The normal
average temperature in Seattle for December is 42.0 degrees. In
the top 10 warmest Novembers not including this year 8 out of
the 10 Decembers had an average temperature below 42.0 degrees.

[PortKells]

from NWS:

November in Seattle was a warm one. The average monthly
temperature of 48.6 degrees was 2.1 degrees above normal. This
is the 7th warmest November in 81 years of records. The normal
average temperature in Seattle for December is 42.0 degrees. In
the top 10 warmest Novembers not including this year 8 out of
the 10 Decembers had an average temperature below 42.0 degrees.

It's so hard now to get a below average month, let alone not in the top ten for warm. Have we had any this year? Maybe February?