February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Granddaddyp2233
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Granddaddyp2233 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 7:19 am :lol: Skipper just needs elevation.
Speaking of draft pick how convenient that Demko pulls up lame in practice on Thursday perhaps another player shutting down for the season.
I'm actually getting stoked for a better draft pick.TBH
I think they will finish bottom 6, Demko shouldn’t even have tried to come back to this dumpster fire.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by John »

:14clown:
SouthSardiswx wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 7:19 amO.k.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

I'm getting a bit of February 2021 vibes, hope to be wrong.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:54 am I'm getting a bit of February 2021 vibes, hope to be wrong.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:07 am Image
Too much side door action. That's ok, we've dominated this winter so far,let them have their late February snow that melts in 2 hours.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

PortKells wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:15 am Too much side door action. That's ok, we've dominated this winter so far,let them have their late February snow that melts in 2 hours.
We should not throw in the towel too soon. The beginning is still 5-6 days away.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

VanCitySouth wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:21 am We should not throw in the towel too soon. The beginning is still 5-6 days away.
Don't worry I'll be right back on board the next model run. I tend to preach patience and then do the opposite.

Having said that, I just think the trajectory of the trough is less favorable for us then the previous 2 events. So far
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 7:26 am Agreed issue is can we pull one more rabbit out of a hat once in a season is special like you said Dec 18th 2022, once more and l give this winter a A+, it was at a C+ in January but end of January's snowfall and now this mornings has bumped it up to an A with next week still pending.
That's quite a jump from C+ to A. Did you score well at the end of Jan?

My computer failed and took down my station for quite a while (back up now). Because of that and other reasons I haven't been around as much lately.

January seemed like almost a total write off until the last minute. I ended up with around 8 cm for Jan 31st-Feb 1st.

Nothing here last night, maybe a bit of chunky rain if you were streetlight gazing.

I'm at C+ or B-, hopefully a solid B or B+ by next weekend.
:dragon:

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Low min: -5.0C (Feb 20th)
Low max: 2.8C (Feb 19th)
Snowfall: 3 cm
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Abby_wx wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:45 am

I'm at C+ or B-, hopefully a solid B or B+ by next weekend.
I think I feel the same way.
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Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Abby_wx wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:45 am That's quite a jump from C+ to A. Did you score well at the end of Jan?

My computer failed and took down my station for quite a while (back up now). Because of that and other reasons I haven't been around as much lately.

January seemed like almost a total write off until the last minute. I ended up with around 8 cm for Jan 31st-Feb 1st.

Nothing here last night, maybe a bit of chunky rain if you were streetlight gazing.

I'm at C+ or B-, hopefully a solid B or B+ by next weekend.
If I take about 40 cm each winter as an average for my location, and average is a C grade, then I'd come up with the following:

<20 cm - abject failure
20-30 - D
30-35 - C-
35-40 - C
40-45 - C+
45-50 - B-
50-60 - B
60-70 - B+
70-85 - A-
85-100 - A
>100 - A+

By that scale last winter was an A- and this winter is currently a B+ for me. It makes sense I am arriving at higher grades than valley folk because the last two winters have had some heavy west-metro snowfalls.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

C.

Needed a few more inversions and +12C days to get to a B.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

VanCitySouth wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:21 am We should not throw in the towel too soon. The beginning is still 5-6 days away.
:goodpost:
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
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Re: February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20230217211652-249fe3a4cab2ffd3720d1788134c4bcdcc85c0bc.png
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