January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

True but no run to run consistency.

The models have been consistent inside 7 days. Outside of that range it's worthless to look at small scale variations; best to look at the overall pattern across the continent (ridges and troughs) because models can't nail down the small scale stuff like surface temps or precip at that range.

Through day 10 the large scale details haven't changed much. We have a pretty good idea that ridging will set up just offshore or along the west coast, with a trough east of the Rockies accompanied by what looks like a transitory shot of very cold air.

[wetcoast91]

The gut punch today is seeing warm advection rains sweep over the ridge bringing damp conditions next week. Tomorrow now looks rainy on the local Mountains.

Ridge now completely flaccid in the 7-10 day range as well on the ECMWF. Damp.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

6ËšC and rain. Actually did spike to 10ËšC overnight but it was dry at the time, so Team 10ËšC Rain did not just notch another win.

[Typeing3]

I think I figured out why the Fishman can’t look at the models.


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E888mEG.jpg

[Catnip]

The gut punch today is seeing warm advection rains sweep over the ridge bringing damp conditions next week. Tomorrow now looks rainy on the local Mountains.

Ridge now completely flaccid in the 7-10 day range as well on the ECMWF. Damp.

You’ve pretty much summed up our winter with one word.

[wetcoast91]

You’ve pretty much summed up our winter with one word.

Just dump a bunch of Cialix and Viagra into the upper troposphere near 150W. Boom...ridge amplifcation and fish boom in one shot.

[stuffradio]

MJO pronged for phase 7...but some ensemble runs have been consistent with a phase 8 evolution with is consistent with +PNA +EPO evolution...

Would look similar to this:



It's a crapshoot anyways. Climate change is throwing more wrenches into modeling and it's very tough to navigate.

We can get hardcore Spring fever in February. Will be interesting to see what happens regardless.

[AbbyJr]

12Z EPS still looks solid.

[Monty]

12Z EPS still looks solid.

Backed off big time in the day 8-10 range.

[AbbyJr]

Backed off big time in the day 8-10 range.

Maybe I am missing something but it looks similar to me.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-3390400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-3390400.png

[PortKells]

You’ve pretty much summed up our winter with one word.

Time to rename the PNW "Lake Flaccid"

[Monty]

Time to rename the PNW "Lake Flaccid"

Fun fact. The town scenes from the movie “Lake Placid” were filmed in Shawnigan Lake. The Lake scenes were not.

[Monty]

Maybe I am missing something but it looks similar to me.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-3390400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-3390400.png

Looks several degrees below average by day 15 yep. But I said 8 to 10 day range.

And this

3AD5D83B-4721-41A4-A0D2-555C422D0EC5.png

Has warmed to this

F5A9167E-C6E3-40ED-9CB7-6C1EA60EB9F6.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks several degrees below average by day 15 yep. But I said 8 to 10 day range.

But of course. It’s always about a fortnight in the future. Always. And it keeps getting pushed back as time advances.

[Hound]

At this point I just want 1 snow day. Just one damn snow day. We don't need a week of cold or whatever. Just 1 widespread snowfall of 10cm so everyone can be happy and then this winter can FRO.