January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

To Florida.... right Nito? Tell them Nito.

5EDAB502-0396-4C8D-8036-E0E8C96295EC.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Don't forget your stats for Jan. Jr.

[Hawk]

To Florida.... right Nito? Tell them Nito.

5EDAB502-0396-4C8D-8036-E0E8C96295EC.png

Ya that's it Catnip hahaha. Tell them Nito!
Nito we have another member maybe jumping over to #TeamSunshine

[AbbyJr]

Don't forget your stats for Jan. Jr.

I posted them.

[Glacier]

Has anyone else noticed that EC's forecasts are always about a degree or so too low for the daily highs?

I'm in the middle of conducting an experiment to see if I'm only imagining this or if they are. I will be running it for an entire month, but only 3 days in.

So far, with 24 different weather stations across the province, 23 are forecasting too low. Only Dease Lake is forecasting too high.

YYJ, YVR, YXX, and YCD are 0.6 (YXX) to 1.4 (YVR) degrees too low in the forecasts. Kamloops is off by 4 degrees... which is why I'm doing it for a month (yesterday was almost 10C, which was almost 8 degrees above forecast, so need long test period to average out really bad days).

[Abby_wx]

Yeah, I notice that a lot but it never occurred to me to track it.

Just so we're on the same page, are you using the 4 pm forecast for the following day?

[Glacier]

Yeah, I notice that a lot but it never occurred to me to track it.

Just so we're on the same page, are you using the 4 pm forecast for the following day?

Yes, 4 pm forecasts.

[VanCitySouth]

Has anyone else noticed that EC's forecasts are always about a degree or so too low for the daily highs?

I, too, have noticed this, especially on sunny winter days.

[Glacier]

Yeah, I notice that a lot but it never occurred to me to track it.

Just so we're on the same page, are you using the 4 pm forecast for the following day?

Ooops, I forgot to add the 29th data... so not quite so bad yesterday. Still, all 4 days I've been tracking have averaged 0.34C too low on the forecast (YJJ is actually bang on, however).

So far Dease Lake is being forecast too high (4 day average of forecast being 1.9C above actual). At the other end, Prince Rupert is being forecast too low by 2.5C.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 5246265344

[AbbyJr]

For what its worth, 3 out of the past 5 GFS runs have had a significant arctic blast around the same timeframe. That works out to 60% of recent runs showing arctic air. Not a super high percentage but shows that winter is still not off the table.

[Weather101]

#TeamNewYork

[Weather101]

If you want snow and cold this is pretty much being in the 3rd period of a hockey game down by 2 with our climate 10 minutes ago.

Could happen, But each day that goes by is 30 seconds off the clock.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

If you want snow and cold this is pretty much being in the 3rd period of a hockey game down by 2 with our climate 10 minutes ago.

Could happen, But each day that goes by is 30 seconds off the clock.

Ummm...it's Feb. now Weedman. do you still have your tree up.

[Weather101]

Ummm...it's Feb. now Weedman. do you still have your tree up.

I take it down after new years