January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

It’s not the only member to take the dive.

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You know even the mean is nothing to sneeze at, considering where we stood just a week or two ago.

[wetcoast91]

You know even the mean is nothing to sneeze at, considering where we stood just a week or two ago.

The warm and wet ensemble member is named Nito.

[Mattman]

Uh oh. Vancouver Sun has picked up on the potential cold weather. If media other than Mark Madryga or Tyler Hamilton speak about this, we know it’ll be a non-event.

[Catnip]

Weeklies just came out.

Nothing that we haven't seen already though.

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[Catnip]

Actually they show below normal surface temps (average) for the entirety of the run.

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[Typeing3]

Question for Typer, since he tracks such things: What is the lowest daily max at YVR? YXX?

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Coldest daily maxes in recorded history for Vancouver (1898-present)


1. -11.1C December 29th, 1968
1. -11.1C January 13th, 1950

3. -10.6C December 28th, 1968
3. -10.6C January 24th, 1950
3. -10.6C January 14th, 1950
3. -10.6C January 7th, 1909

7. -10.0C December 16th, 1964
7. -10.0C January 21st, 1943

9. -9.4C January 17th, 1950

10. -8.9C December 30th, 1968
10. -8.9C January 13th, 1911

12. -8.7C November 27th, 1985

13. -8.3C January 2nd, 1950
13. -8.3C January 22nd, 1943
13. -8.3C January 12th, 1911
13. -8.3C January 8th, 1909

17. -7.8C December 27th, 2021
17. -7.8C January 28th, 1969
17. -7.8C January 16th, 1950
17. -7.8C January 15th, 1950

21. -7.7C November 26th, 1985

22. -7.6C December 28th, 1996

23. -7.5C December 29th, 1990

24. -7.2C January 27th, 1969
24. -7.2C December 31st, 1951
24. -7.2C January 18th, 1950
24. -7.2C January 18th, 1935
24. -7.2C February 13th, 1923

29. -7.0C December 21st, 2022
29. -7.0C December 21st, 1990
29. -7.0C February 2nd, 1989



Data: Vancouver PMO (1898-1936) + YVR (1937-present)

[PortKells]

Actually they show below normal surface temps (average) for the entirety of the run.





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Most of that at the end is fake cold. We need to hopefully get back to a rain train and fast after the fun is over because we’re going to need a serious snowpack boost.

Then again, I just got my truck stuck again in the mid. If we got snow and then locked it in with several weeks of inversions I ain’t complaining.

[Catnip]

Most of that at the end is fake cold. We need to hopefully get back to a rain train and fast after the fun is over because we’re going to need a serious snowpack boost.

Yup.

The one positive is we'd have potential snow cover for an extended period.

[Catnip]

Uh oh. Vancouver Sun has picked up on the potential cold weather. If media other than Mark Madryga or Tyler Hamilton speak about this, we know it’ll be a non-event.

They did interview an EC Met at least.

"Wax up those skis and snowboards, it looks like winter is finally coming to B.C.’s South Coast.

Metro Vancouver is in for a cold snap next week as a swirl of Arctic air takes on the El Niño phenomenon that has caused a much warmer than normal winter.

Residents in some parts of the region may even see some slushy snow as early as this weekend, however a larger snowfall is expected mid to late next week, according to weather experts.

Brian Proctor, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said as temperatures significantly drop on Wednesday and Thursday, plunging as low as -5 C or even -10 C overnight, there’s a good chance of a “significant snowfall.”

He said cooler weather could bring a mix of rain and snow overnight Sunday or Monday morning but the temperature will warm up slightly again on Tuesday.

Then that sweep of Arctic air should hit the region on Wednesday and continue into Thursday and Friday.

“We’re probably going to see a fairly widespread snowfall event during that Wednesday night to Thursday time frame as that colder Arctic air really settles over the top of the inner South Coast,” said Proctor.

So far it has been a warmer than normal winter for most of B.C. because of a “really strong” El Niño, which has combined with an upper ridge of high pressure over the B.C. Interior, he said.

“The El Niño is still there but that ridge is collapsing as we’re seeing some Arctic air really begin to become more widespread through portions of the Northern Yukon. And then we will see it move southwards,” said Proctor."

[Bc_trucker]

Nice seeing this forum being so active....!

[Typeing3]

Sure we have. 2008.

Nope. Nothing even remotely close to the coldest 850mb temps the 12z euro is showing.

Coldest 850mb temps at YVR since 2000
#1 -- Dec 19, 2008 & Nov 23, 2010: -17c

#3 -- Feb 6, 2014 & Dec 27, 2021: -16c

#5 -- Jan 4, 2004 & Feb 25, 2011 & Dec 6, 2013 & Dec 21, 2022: -15c

#9 -- Nov 28, 2006 & Feb 19, 2018 & Jan 14, 2020: -14c

#12 -- Mar 7, 2002: -13c

#13 -- Jan 16, 2012 & Nov 29, 2014: -12C

#15 -- Jan 29, 2002: -11C


Note: Coldest for each cold snap listed.
Source: https://meteologix.com/ca/reanalysis/ec ... 2100z.html

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

You know even the mean is nothing to sneeze at, considering where we stood just a week or two ago.

Yup, mean bottoms out below -10˚C and it’s not being modelled as a totally dry blast, either!

[Storm]

Uh oh. Vancouver Sun has picked up on the potential cold weather. If media other than Mark Madryga or Tyler Hamilton speak about this, we know it’ll be a non-event.

They saw the Weeklies?

[Storm]

ICON picking up on the snow.

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[Bonovox]

ICON picking up on the snow.
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It sure has. I haven’t looked at any of the details yet.