November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

Would be nice to see an old school Pineapple Express! Think 18C on Christmas followed by a flash freeze and damaging outflow winds!

Christmas 1980! High/low of 18c/13c in Abbotsford!

[Typeing3]

More clown range entertainment.


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Not possible as it shows a cold January.

[Catnip]

More clown range entertainment.


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One day soon the circus will come to town!

[AbbyJr]

Not possible as it shows a cold January.

[Hawk]

Got down to a chilly -0.6 in Sechelt.

EC is offering a chance of flurries Saturday night...but they also promised 4 dry days that they changed to showers.

good luck with the

[Hawk]

Would be nice to see an old school Pineapple Express! Think 18C on Christmas followed by a flash freeze and damaging outflow winds!

lol..you youngans playing too many violent video games

[AbbyJr]

Hey does anyone have a link to the website where you can create a plot showing the 500mb pattern based on the Month, MJO, and ENSO phase? I've seen it posted on Twitter before and WXBell has one posted on one of their recent articles in the premium section. However, I have not been able to find the website or section of NOAA's page where you can generate upper level composites based on those variables.

Essentially, the composite looks identical to the following image generated on NOAA's monthly composite page:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... intpage.pl

The only difference is that instead of using analogs, other variables such as Month, MJO, and ENSO phase are inputed.

500mbreanalysis.png

[wetcoast91]

This is how Cypress Mountain looked like by Jan 2024.



Warm temps followed by a period of mild rain leads me to believe the mountains will be bare by mid December.

[Catnip]

This is how Cypress Mountain looked like by Jan 2024.



Warm temps followed by a period of mild rain leads me to believe the mountains will be bare by mid December.

The Euro tonight is a fest in the extended.

[Hawk]

Christmas 1980! High/low of 18c/13c in Abbotsford!

I remember that..living in M Ridge at the time. Suuuuper bommy and super sad day

[Hawk]

This is how Cypress Mountain looked like by Jan 2024.



Warm temps followed by a period of mild rain leads me to believe the mountains will be bare by mid December.

Cmon Nito. The snow negativity is palpable

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

This is how Cypress Mountain looked like by Jan 2024.



Warm temps followed by a period of mild rain leads me to believe the mountains will be bare by mid December.

It took some warm AR’s to achieve that. Warm dry ridging, like what’s being modelled, will cause compaction but no big melt-off.

[stuffradio]

TWN released its winter outlook. It's calling for a colder than normal and snowier than normal winter for SW BC.

[Catnip]

TWN released its winter outlook. It's calling for a colder than normal and snowier than normal winter for SW BC.

Looks similar to some of the other's we've seen.


The focus of winter's fury will be in western Canada, where near-normal and colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate this upcoming season.

British Columbia

A cold winter is expected across the province, with a heightened risk for periods of severe cold for the B.C. Peace region and arctic outflow events for the south coast region. However, the frigid pattern will relax at times, especially during December.

An active storm track should also bring above-normal snowfall to southern parts of the province, including Vancouver, Victoria, and Kelowna. Much of the south and central coast should see near-normal rain totals with a lower than normal risk for Pineapple Express events. Below-normal precipitation is expected for the north coast region.

However, above-normal snow totals are expected to extend into some areas with near-normal precipitation totals. The colder temperatures should result in less rain and more pure snow events, even across lower elevations.

A solid ski season is expected, including a strong start to the season, especially compared to last year. Snow totals in the alpine regions are not expected to be exceptional, but fewer rain events in the alpine regions should help to preserve the snow that does fall across the region, and colder temperatures will allow for more snowmaking opportunities.

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[wetcoast91]

It took some warm AR’s to achieve that. Warm dry ridging, like what’s being modelled, will cause compaction but no big melt-off.

This is all rain on the ski hills. Won't take much to erode the 1 meter snow depth.