December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[Storm]

I told my friends that it's sort of all over the place and I wouldn't be surprised if it was a nothing burger. I think EC should do NWS style forecast discussions because I'm sure they would be able to explain themselves in a write-up, but that might cause a flare-up of the governmental diseases, bureaucratitis and budgetitis.

This was very close for the far western sections to get nailed. I don't think EC would of gamble with this one after Wednesday.

[Typeing3]

I think l was so disappointed Dec/83 Tnosnow, that l've blocked it out all these years.
But yes Jan/11 those maps still haunt me l can't get them out of my mind. l looked up Jan/Feb 84 it was an absolutely horrible winter.
Jan featured no overnight lows below 0c Feb featured one over nigh low of of 0.0c at YVR.

Wouldn't say it was a horrible winter... was a pretty notable arctic blast that immediately preceded that snowfall bust on the 24th in Dec 1983. Long and cold enough for people to be skating on the local lakes, even Lost Lagoon.

January 1984 was pretty bad, yes, but I think you got it mixed up with January 1983, which was right up there with 2015 or 2010. YVR recorded 10 days with overnight lows below 0c in January 1984: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 84&Month=1

[VanCitySouth]

This was very close for the far western sections to get nailed. I don't think EC would of gamble with this one after Wednesday.

I'm not saying they should have gambled, I understood why they did what they did. I'm saying they could have explained their decision better if they put out NWS style area forecast discussions.

[stuffradio]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/159 ... DtAcX_ZtPg

[Nimbus2]

Report from Back home this morning was 13cm overnight after about 3cm yesterday afternoon.

We ended up with only 4 cm here, so quite a bit less than Shawnigan Lake and up Island. Temp was around 0 to +1 during the night so some of it melted. I assume there was quite a bit more on the Malahat. Anyone know the total there?

[Monty]

We ended up with only 4 cm here, so quite a bit less than Shawnigan Lake and up Island. Temp was around 0 to +1 during the night so some of it melted. I assume there was quite a bit more on the Malahat. Anyone know the total there?

Highway website reported 2cm yesterday with another 17cm overnight.

[wetcoast91]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/159 ... DtAcX_ZtPg

Eastern weenies are so impatient. Past few ECMWF runs are showing a much milder and wetter pattern coming in the 7+ day period.


Overall a wetter and milder trend is coming.

[Nimbus2]

This is in answer to SouthSardiswx earlier post (couldn't find it) EC technical discussion was dropped back in the mid 1990's. I think that it was big mistake. It was a way of explaining the variables and confidence that the forecaster had in the forecast. I actually wrote a few and I think it really helped me get a grasp on the 'big picture' and enabled me to write a better public forecast as a result. Yes, there is the avalanche.ca/weather site now but I still think the more technical discussion would be better. But good luck getting that back now!

[VanCitySouth]

This is in answer to SouthSardiswx earlier post (couldn't find it) EC technical discussion was dropped back in the mid 1990's. I think that it was big mistake. It was a way of explaining the variables and confidence that the forecaster had in the forecast. I actually wrote a few and I think it really helped me get a grasp on the 'big picture' and enabled me to write a better public forecast as a result. Yes, there is the avalanche.ca/weather site now but I still think the more technical discussion would be better. But good luck getting that back now!

Thanks I think you were looking for my post, I posed the question a couple pages back.

[Nimbus2]

Highway website reported 2cm yesterday with another 17cm overnight.

Thanks a lot Monty! I advised some neighbours NOT to drive down to Victoria and back here yesterday evening so now I'm glad I did.

[stuffradio]

Eastern weenies are so impatient. Past few ECMWF runs are showing a much milder and wetter pattern coming in the 7+ day period.


Overall a wetter and milder trend is coming.

5B1CAB6C-C402-457F-9F50-56B11B05CFBE.png

8272C73C-FA6F-47B3-A5DF-427D9ADD7FDF.png

[Nimbus2]

Thanks I think you were looking for my post, I posed the question a couple pages back.

Sorry, got mixed in the quotes!

[wetcoast91]

This is in answer to SouthSardiswx earlier post (couldn't find it) EC technical discussion was dropped back in the mid 1990's. I think that it was big mistake. It was a way of explaining the variables and confidence that the forecaster had in the forecast. I actually wrote a few and I think it really helped me get a grasp on the 'big picture' and enabled me to write a better public forecast as a result. Yes, there is the avalanche.ca/weather site now but I still think the more technical discussion would be better. But good luck getting that back now!

EC has just been gutted and it looks even worse when you realize the population has grown along with density in many communities. Food for thought... Meteorologists get horribly underpaid for what they do, with some now making as low as 65k per year. This is why I shifted careers to surveying and forestry years ago and left the field of climatology. There is just no worth to it.

[Weather101]

YVR hourly observations show a little mixed precip and wet snow at 22:00 and 23:00. Nothing new obviously fell overnight here. Yup, snow bust.

A bust for snow, but a win for the models. The way the temperatures were spiking and that both the ECMWF and the GFS agreed on paltry precip amounts should make this no surprise. It’s why I wasn’t expecting much.

So it's not a bust for snow if the models showed us exactly what played out.

[wetcoast91]

5B1CAB6C-C402-457F-9F50-56B11B05CFBE.png
8272C73C-FA6F-47B3-A5DF-427D9ADD7FDF.png

7-14 day period? The pattern progression upstream seems to favour a return to the +PNA setup. Either way, the AO going positive is going to keep most of the cold bottled up North. No point wasting a nice offshore ridge on medicore cold.