November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Abby_wx]

23.6 mm

38.2 mm now.

[Hound]

Giant Asian hornet found in Abbotsford, B.C.

OhOh Abby, what have you been up to?

[Harooch]

If we get another '98-'99 this year I will be forever grateful to Ullr, the Norse god of snow. Mount Baker had 3000 cm (yes, 30 meters) cumulative that year, with the North Shore reporting a 10 meter snow pack. I remember skiing at Grouse on my birthday that year, July 12.

I'm feeling confident for a nice zonal setup from remembrance day to the end of the month. Anything is better than the drought of last November.

[PortKells]

If we get another '98-'99 this year I will be forever grateful to Ullr, the Norse god of snow. Mount Baker had 3000 cm (yes, 30 meters) cumulative that year, with the North Shore reporting a 10 meter snow pack. I remember skiing at Grouse on my birthday that year, July 12.

I'm feeling confident for a nice zonal setup from remembrance day to the end of the month. Anything is better than the drought of last November.

That would be bittersweet. I'd hate to waste all that on such a weird ski season.

[Abby_wx]

23.6 mm

38.2 mm now.

Total 50.1 mm.

[Monty]

Total 50.1 mm.

Just shy of 40mm here. A fairly average November rainstorm. It almost seems silly they issue a rainfall warning every time there is a 40-60mm rainfall in the models.

[AbbyJr]

We had a pretty solid arctic shot in mid-late December '98. Other than that, the rest of the winter was very wet with 600-900m snow levels. Was a slightly wetter and warmer version of 2007-08 overall.

Yeah 1998/99 was a decent winter. Still not the best though. I'd say I prefer 2007/08 because it was snowier.

[Michael1]

Wow, I have rarely seen a negative 3 degree anomaly in equatorial SSTs :

lat_lon_sst_anom_20201101_sst_mean_20201101_hf_on_2020110412.png

[Abby_wx]

Just shy of 40mm here. A fairly average November rainstorm. It almost seems silly they issue a rainfall warning every time there is a 40-60mm rainfall in the models.

Yup... a rainfall warning doesn't mean very much in our climate. The criteria for rainfall warnings is pretty uniform throughout Canada. The threshold for long duration (24 hour) rainfall is 50 mm almost everywhere, save for parts of Vancouver Island and North and Central Coast.

On the mainland we have the same 50 mm threshold that applies to both North Vancouver and areas further south like Richmond. The north shore will typically see multiple 50 mm+ events throughout the year, while areas near the US border might only see 0-3 such events per year, but everyone gets the same warning.

In general I feel like the issuance of warnings has gotten too liberal, but that's another discussion.

[Nimbus]

Feels tropical out there today - 18 C. Not bad for November 4th!

[AbbyJr]

Yup... a rainfall warning doesn't mean very much in our climate. The criteria for rainfall warnings is pretty uniform throughout Canada. The threshold for long duration (24 hour) rainfall is 50 mm almost everywhere, save for parts of Vancouver Island and North and Central Coast.

On the mainland we have the same 50 mm threshold that applies to both North Vancouver and areas further south like Richmond. The north shore will typically see multiple 50 mm+ events throughout the year, while areas near the US border might only see 0-3 such events per year, but everyone gets the same warning.

In general I feel like the issuance of warnings has gotten too liberal, but that's another discussion.

I personally agree. The warnings should be reserved for the rare heavy rain events that produce 50-70+ mm in a 12 hour period in regions that don't normally see that much in rain in such a short duration.

Further, the criteria should be different for different parts of the Lower Mainland since whats run of the mill for Coquitlam would be rare for other nearby regions.

But these run of the mill events shouldn't trigger a warning.

[Forrest Gump]

Feels tropical out there today - 18 C. Not bad for November 4th!

Nice! I'm sure you mean + 18. Under sunny or overcast skies? 15.4° here with no sun in sight. Back to wearing shorts ,

[AbbyJr]

Very warm southerly flow here. My high was 17C today but down to 16C now. Looks like it will get really windy later too.

[Typeing3]

Very warm southerly flow here. My high was 17C today but down to 16C now. Looks like it will get really windy later too.

Early November warm spells during La Nina's are generally a good sign for winter....

[Typeing3]

Total of 70.5mm (48.8mm yesterday and 21.8 mm so far today) recorded at the northeast coquitlam rain gauge.

Pretty typical November rainfall as expected.