January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

Way to go W101, l barely said anything to him and he jumped all over me. Oh l said to stuffy if l'm told to cut back on to much joking then he should stop spamming about his cabin and Similkameen he goes on all day about it.

All the time man he messaged me 3 years ago in my inbox wanting to meet me and fight, Yet went on the forum and said he was a peace maker not knowing I screenshot his message and I posted it on the forum lol then he called me a snitch and a loser. I See him jump on you all that time yet he sits here spams the forums telling people stop looking 10 days out...

Isn't it funny theres zero fights on this forum unless it deals with hawk? me you and Michael but guess whos involved? Hawk lol

[Hawk]

Logically..its the dead of winter, in a neutral year..western troffing just established. U really think its going to persistent AR for an extended time now? What about all the weeklies showing cool West and Bommy east?

[Weather101]

Keep in mind, we are all family here. A family of weather lovers. Sometimes we get mad and fight with each other. SO? This happens in real families too. Accept that it is part of life and don't take it personal. It's ok to get mad or upset at someone, but it takes a wise person to let it slide afterwards and realize without your family, what is really left?

Most people outside of a weather forum would think we are all losers because we geek out about weather, so we have to stay strong together. We can't be enemies among ourselves for our love for weather. We are a small group. We don't want to be like the American Forum.

I agree I love everyone here! Always look forward to big events with everyone of you and will continue to love it

[Antares]

Hi WP,

Thank you for your synopsis and summary of the past and future weather for this week. I agree with you on so many points i can see why we would be great buttees! Esp talking weather
I really look forward to your contributions here. They provide us snowlovers with a realistic and optimistic forecast.

I agree with you on the wind aspect and would like to suggest the following:
In times when a Nino or Nino state dominates, i feel that the S winds blow right through easily. Transition events occur quickly, with little to no snow. In times of colder set ups, like this week, the S winds struggle to dominate and warm us up, mainly due to our topography and the "pattern" that allows cold air to seep out through the valleys and inlets continuously, or repeatedly. I call it pattern lock, and there has been many examples of this while i have been on this forum.

The biggest variable is the winds..i agree. Last time they barely put a dent into this cold airmass. The warmth was a sliver around 200-400m. And whatever did warm up was brief and mostly coastal. Forecasts have been showing a warm up and much warmer temps..which have been way off.

I like all the members on here that provide excellent weather data, insight and analysis. Hopefully won't forget someone but Monty AbbyWX, Jr, Nito, Goose, Glacier, Storm, Catnip, and prolly missed a few..sorry.

But WP, you take the prize! If you nail the snowcast this time all i can say is wowwwwwwww

We will find out by tomorrow sometime

Ahem.

[wetcoast91]

But WP said cooler temps. What are the chances your statements will be close? Do you believe that after about the 4 or 5 day mark its accurate or not?

We are hooped as we see the MJO enter phase 5 - mild and wet pattern but increases the likelihood of a major AR event with the tropical convection. We are stuck in this pattern for 15-20 days based on climo (usually occuring after an arctic outbreak of this magnitude). Long term models show lessening tropical convection leading to the development of a massive west coast ridge and shutting down the pacific ocean which would be step #1 in bringing the cold back.

Next 2 weeks will be boring weather wise.

[Cloverdale]

So how are we rating this stretch of weather? Better than the average winter? Better than last Feb?

[Antares]

We are hooped as we see the MJO enter phase 5 - mild and wet pattern but increases the likelihood of a major AR event with the tropical convection. We are stuck in this pattern for 15-20 days based on climo (usually occuring after an arctic outbreak of this magnitude). Long term models show lessening tropical convection leading to the development of a massive west coast ridge and shutting down the pacific ocean which would be step #1 in bringing the cold back.

Next 2 weeks will be boring weather wise.

Yup, last two weeks of Feb is the next and probably last realistic chance of any real winter here. It's been a good run the last few days though.

[Lisa0527]

Radar says moisture will hit the west side soon. What will it be???
Snow or rain


Edit: Tsawwassen is first up for ?snow?

[VanCitySouth]

Radar says moisture will hit the west side soon. What will it be???
Snow or rain


Edit: Tsawwassen is first up for ?snow?

Snow to start seems to be no doubt

[Antares]

So how are we rating this stretch of weather? Better than the average winter? Better than last Feb?

For me, this month is slightly better even though last February was longer lasting. That cold period persisted into mid-March as well. Tons of snow and ice still in Lynn Valley/Canyon in mid-March.

But it's hard to beat highs around -7C or colder for me. Too bad the lows didn't reach their full potential though, which was probably about -10C to -15C for most areas. Probably colder in the Fraser Valley.

[Lisa0527]

Snow to start seems to be no doubt

Hope so

[Hound]

Snow covered BC:

[Hound]

By the way everyone, if you see any images posted on the forum, the pics in the post are usually shrunk smaller, so if you click on them with a right click mouse click, the context menu comes up and you can select "View Image" and it will open in a new window. This also works on sideways pics, if you do the same it will open in a new window with the correct orientation and full size! Try it on the satellite image I just posted. To go back to the forum just hit the back button.

[Monty]

-0.4C. Snow is already starting to turn over to a mix. Definitely a warm layer working in to the South Island. It was snowing beautifully 1/2hr ago.

[moonshadow0825]

pretty amazing weather across the continent!

https://twitter.com/justinhobson85/stat ... 6137263111