Monty wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:42 pm
Some of the 0z models do pivot the Rain train slightly north of the eastern Fraser valley for a time tomorrow morning. Might be a bit of help for those areas. At the same time this will probably serve to focus the heaviest rainfall rates on southern Vancouver island and the north shore mountains of Vancouver. Could be the most intense rain of the event in the early morning hours for those areas
Great. Decided to stay another night in nanaimo so we weren't driving home to vic in the dark with rain. Not planning on leaving until 11 am or so so hopefully most of it passes by then.
Hound wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:45 pm
Maybe I'll go drive there tomorrow. Tonight is dark, so no point.
I cross them daily going to work, and I've seen them high before, but I can't remember a time we have had this much rain in such a short time. Now THIS is an 1980's style AR!! Nito must be sexually pleased.
Weatherhead wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:50 pm
Great. Decided to stay another night in nanaimo so we weren't driving home to vic in the dark with rain. Not planning on leaving until 11 am or so so hopefully most of it passes by then.
Looks like the front will cross thru here a little before noon. A little concerned with that westerly wind surge behind the front. 80-90kmh gusts with totally saturated soils
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Forrest Gump wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:58 pm
80's, so it's not climate change related ?
For sure in the 80s and early 90s It was far more common for these atmospheric rivers to give us a direct hit. ARs are a totally normal weather pattern for our region the same way hurricanes are normal in the East coast of the US and typhoons are normal in the Philippines etc. The pattern itself i's not a result of climate change. The question is whether these strong ARrs will become more common in the FUTURE (due to climate change). A very strong AR that causes major flooding is likely every few years. We are usually good for 2-5 ARs every year.
Monty wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:55 pm
Looks like the front will cross thru here a little before noon. A little concerned with that westerly wind surge behind the front. 80-90kmh gusts with totally saturated soils
Interesting how EC say's temp. falling to plus 4c Monday afternoon.
And our first freeze Tuesday night in the central valley.
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:12 pm
hrrr-vancouverski-gust_kmh-6995600.png
Oh that's a sharp cold front! You can see that well defined line between southerlies and westerlies. You got a frame a few hours down the line from this?
2025-26 season stats:
Climo ∞ to 0.5 GFS
Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:13 pm
Oh that's a sharp cold front! You can see that well defined line between southerlies and westerlies. You got a frame a few hours down the line from this?
That it is, any ideas how the local ski hills will do this week? looks chilly at lower elevations.
VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:13 pm
Oh that's a sharp cold front! You can see that well defined line between southerlies and westerlies. You got a frame a few hours down the line from this?
hrrr-vancouverski-gust_kmh-6999200.png
hrrr-vancouverski-gust_kmh-7002800.png
hrrr-vancouverski-gust_kmh-7006400.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:50 pm
Whatcom County declared a state of emergency ages ago. It really should be one in the Fraser Valley too. Why is our government asleep at the switch?
Well, like everything in BC it's too little too late. We are not prepared for anything. EC = Fail, Gov = Fail.
North Surrey/Fraser Heights
Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
∞ to 0.5 
GFS
