December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png



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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 11:52 am So you're telling me there's a chance
Basically, yes. As of right now it looks like a notch more marginal than the last set-up, which was itself marginal.

So my guess would be for some wet slop atop Burnaby Mountain and slushy rain for the rest of us.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Whistler is also having issues due to lack of snow.

https://youtu.be/jakqpL9NEjQ?si=jha2C9hIE5Z_55wO
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

:think:

18Z 12km NAM also suggests the possibility of wet snow on Christmas Eve. We'll see what some of the mesoscale models say as wet get into their range.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

:think:
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 12:51 pm:think:
I believe 2 is good for us?

:think:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Catnip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:03 pm I believe 2 is good for us?

:think:
Higher sun angles! ;)
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:03 pm I believe 2 is good for us?

:think:
1 and 2 are good. :shock:
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 12:51 pm:think:
Euro catching this in the 8-10 day window. This is your typical El Nino pattern with the Southern jet punching through and the bullseye for winter being in the Eastern US. Canada looks boner dry.

Edit: Thanks to whoever added the "r" to be bone.
Last edited by wetcoast91 on Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:13 pm Euro catching this in the 8-10 day window. This is your typical El Nino pattern with the Southern jet punching through and the bullseye for winter being in the Eastern US. Canada looks boner dry.
That's anybody's guess really. Once the Pacific jet retracts and we get some suppression, it at least puts us in the window of opportunity. May happen, may not.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:29 pm That's anybody's guess really. Once the Pacific jet retracts and we get some suppression, it at least puts us in the window of opportunity. May happen, may not.
I just want a consolidated westerly jet aimed towards us. Fast moving storms with heavy rain, winds and lightning. Strong NW winds and sunshine. Next storm....rinse and repeat.

We barely see storms. Just AR's or warm advection rains.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 9:18 am Now looking at the potential for 150-200mm rain for the region between Monday to Wednesday with freezing levels near 2800m.
Score! :thumbup: :thumbup:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by walthz »

Catnip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 12:46 pm Whistler is also having issues due to lack of snow.

https://youtu.be/jakqpL9NEjQ?si=jha2C9hIE5Z_55wO
His site is awesome for ski/info. :fishing3:
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Sheesh.. at the point I'd just close.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:32 pm I just want a consolidated westerly jet aimed towards us. Fast moving storms with heavy rain, winds and lightning. Strong NW winds and sunshine. Next storm....rinse and repeat.

We barely see storms. Just AR's or warm advection rains.
We really don't get as many storms anymore.
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