February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Antares]

Okay so I now officially accept defeat. I honestly thought the EPS would remain solid. But it's now warming significantly.

Looks like winter is cancelled unfortunately. It's going to take an unexpected miracle to see any meaningful cold and snow.

Very disappointing winter. I have to admit, I don't remember the last time the long made models performed this bad.

It's likely partially due to the poor long range resolution that caused the models to initially show the arctic air getting into SW BC but then as resolution increases, the models slide the cold east.

Not what was expected in a -ENSO/+QBO but consistent with climo.

I will end this post with the following:

It's an important winter, when looking at things like ENSO, effects of SSW events, "low solar", etc.

Just goes to show there is never any guarantee. But yeah, I would not be surprised at all if it was predominately wet and cool until May/June.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I read somewhere that a big cause this year is a lack of valuable observations from commercial flights across the Pacific due to Covid, making the already sparse data points even fewer and farther between. The less accurate the initial obs, the less accurate the output; or, to be succinct, GIGO.

That’s been my working theory. Haven’t bothered to confirm it, though.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Lots of warm advection light rain and drizzle until the weekend through.

Is that really winning?

For Team 10ËšC Rain, it most definitely is!

[Monty]

Okay so I now officially accept defeat. I honestly thought the EPS would remain solid. But it's now warming significantly.

Looks like winter is cancelled unfortunately. It's going to take an unexpected miracle to see any meaningful cold and snow.

Very disappointing winter. I have to admit, I don't remember the last time the long made models performed this bad.

It's likely partially due to the poor long range resolution that caused the models to initially show the arctic air getting into SW BC but then as resolution increases, the models slide the cold east.

Not what was expected in a -ENSO/+QBO but consistent with climo.

I will end this post with the following:

There really hasn’t been much cold air to slide off to the east either. Just a progressive mild winter for everyone to this point.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Brett Anderson has not given up on our winter yet. Here's his post today.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... eks/892326

Basically, La Niña climo. Which has not worked out very well so far this “winter.”

[wetcoast91]

Lackluster few weeks on the slopes. Periodic wet snows and rains. Periods of powdery snow have been followed by melts.

Snow depth may be impressive but the quality sucks.

[PortKells]

Apparently the EPS is looking great at day 31. I mean, 13.

[Catnip]

Think Mid-March.

C'mon!!

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[Typeing3]

Think Mid-March.

C'mon!!



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I bet the opposite will happen. Multiple slushfalls through late April...like spring 2008.

[Hound]

I see they have finished remodelling your house Nito!

[Catnip]

I bet the opposite will happen. Multiple slushfalls through late April...like spring 2008.

I'd take it in exchange for a Dec 2008 on the other end.

[Hound]

Okay so I now officially accept defeat.
Looks like winter is cancelled unfortunately.
Very disappointing winter.
Not what was expected in a -ENSO/+QBO but consistent with climo.

[Monty]

Think Mid-March.

C'mon!!



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By mid March that would be amazing. I love me some warm spring weather.

[PortKells]

Think Mid-March.

C'mon!!



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I'm ready to put this behind us. No skiing for me means please bring that sunshine. Maybe we can have a nice average summer too. (Just kidding. That will never happen)

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 51622?s=21