September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:51 pm Winter lacked any significant cold snaps.

Cold and wet December (rain almost everyday) with a few days of heavy wet snow leading up to Christmas. Cool and dry January (ridge overhead for most of the month). Fairly average February.

Would much rather see us follow the 1896 script instead of 2012. :thumbup:
While 1896 was solid in terms of cold, it lacked snow. Let's try to aim for January 1913. Agassiz recorded 226.2 cm of snow that month with 164.5 cm falling at the New Westminster station. :lol: :clap:

:bravo: :team: :chilly: :snowman:

Here is the historical data from Environment Canada for both Agassiz and New Westminster that month.

Agassiz:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1913

New Westminster:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1913
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:42 pm It was actually an El Nino winter. :lol:
:shock: :shock: hmmmmm La Nina haven't really given us the best winters. Maybe we should be hoping for an El Nino winter, though third time's the charm as they say so this should be a good one!
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:02 am While 1896 was solid in terms of cold, it lacked snow. Let's try to aim for January 1913. Agassiz recorded 226.2 cm of snow that month with 164.5 cm falling at the New Westminster station. :lol: :clap:

:bravo: :team: :chilly: :snowman:

Here is the historical data from Environment Canada for both Agassiz and New Westminster that month.
I'm with you Junior, I'd much rather have snow than cold. The cold last winter was fun and I experienced some new cold weather things but having no water for 10 days was not. So bring on the snow! :clap:
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:02 am While 1896 was solid in terms of cold, it lacked snow. Let's try to aim for January 1913. Agassiz recorded 226.2 cm of snow that month with 164.5 cm falling at the New Westminster station. :lol: :clap:

:bravo: :team: :chilly: :snowman:

Here is the historical data from Environment Canada for both Agassiz and New Westminster that month.

Agassiz:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1913

New Westminster:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1913
January 1913 is a dream, I've mentioned it on the forum a few times before too. :D

Most of the mainland had more snow than the island during that month, which is pretty atypical since generally during our snowiest periods on record, they tend to score more in that department.

Though I can say if it's between 1896-97 and 2012-13, I'm picking 1896. Only November on record that's comparable with 1985.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:59 pm Will be interesting to see if we pass 2012 for the dry/warm spell. Lasted until October 11th that year, if I remember correctly. Had a few fairly cold mornings (close to freezing) at that time too.
It's a possibility. But let's hope we don't follow the 2002 pattern. Only 18.3 mm of rain fell at YVR in October (much of that in 1 day) compared to its average 112.5 mm. Whistler and Port Hardy also had their driest October ever in 2002. Rains didn't begin until November 4, then it rained 17 straight days. Winter 02/03 was horrible. A ridgy split flow pattern to start with fog then some heavy rain in mid to late December 2002 and again in late January 2003. Extremely dry February 2003. Mild overall. Cool and very wet March and April.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Coquitlam79 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:18 am It's a possibility. But let's hope we don't follow the 2002 pattern. Only 18.3 mm of rain fell at YVR in October (much of that in 1 day) compared to its average 112.5 mm. Whistler and Port Hardy also had their driest October ever in 2002. Rains didn't begin until November 4, then it rained 17 straight days. Winter 02/03 was horrible. A ridgy split flow pattern to start with fog then some heavy rain in mid to late December 2002 and again in late January 2003. Extremely dry February 2003. Mild overall. Cool and very wet March and April.
1987 (as you previously mentioned, I believe) is another candidate for the dry late summer + early fall combo.

26.0mm in August, 28.4mm in September, followed by 20.4mm in October.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20221001101837-0f9630f8cfa6fe04cfdaf4caa6c95ef33dff3f91.png
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles

00z GEFS (GFS ensembles)
gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

00z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)
eps_apcpn_wus_60 (4).png

00z GEPS (GEM ensembles)
gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (4).png
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:18 am
Geesh Tdrought at this rate the precip will continue to be pushed ahead to November. :crazy: l realized after the late start to summer l thought we'd transition in to a fall like pattern by late September or early October.
Where now in unprecedented territory for lack of precip. I'm amazed it looks dry and fairly warm through Thanksgiving now. :shock: ooopppsss were in Augtober now Tforgot. :oops:
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

How much rain have we had since June 20ish I don’t think more than 15mm in the valley !! Very unusual
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:44 am Geesh Tdrought at this rate the precip will continue to be pushed ahead to November. :crazy: l realized after the late start to summer l thought we'd transition in to a fall like pattern by late September or early October.
Where now in unprecedented territory for lack of precip. I'm amazed it looks dry and fairly warm through Thanksgiving now. :shock: ooopppsss were in Augtober now Tforgot. :oops:
Not unprecedented, but certainly quite abnormal. Likely once the rain starts, the floodgates will open for a long while. Something like 20-30 consecutive days with rain at some point.
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:25 am Not unprecedented, but certainly quite abnormal. Likely once the rain starts, the floodgates will open for a long while. Something like 20-30 consecutive days with rain at some point.
Perhaps unprecedented is overdone Tdry but it appears the last 2 years of unusual weird weather seems unprecedented to me.IMO
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Re: September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:22 am How much rain have we had since June 20ish I don’t think more than 15mm in the valley !! Very unusual
John l recorded 15.7mm from Jun 15th to Jun 30th, July was 34.1mm, August was 6.7mm and September was 1.9mm @ the official pond in south Sardis. :wave:
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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