December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[walthz]

No real storms or activity the next week. Chilly showers and maybe some 40-50km/hr wind gusts.

Boring weather is why a lot of people choose to live in Vancouver.
Present company excepted.

[stuffradio]

The latest weeklies are cooler than normal over the next month

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_46day-6246400.png

[VanCitySouth]

I’d give the last event an A- or a B+. Definitely not an A+. It wasn’t super-cold or super-long-lasting, and the snow amounts IMBY were decent but not extraordinary, Last December’s cold snap was colder, longer-lasting, and snowier IMBY,.

I would agree. I think I would place only the rarest of events in the A+ tier, reserved for a stretch of at least 2 weeks of truly region-wide snow chances (see Dec 2008).

Last week is probably around an A- for me, and last December a solid A.

Comparison IMBY:
2021 - colder, had a decent "aftershock" (secondary period of less impressive cold), more total snow, days of snow, and days with snow cover
2022 - larger single event, higher peak snow depth

[PortKells]

The latest weeklies are cooler than normal over the next month

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_46day-6246400.png

Is that last week of january still looking promising?

[PortKells]

I would agree. I think I would place only the rarest of events in the A+ tier, reserved for a stretch of at least 2 weeks of truly region-wide snow chances (see Dec 2008).

Last week is probably around an A- for me, and last December a solid A.

Comparison IMBY:
2021 - colder, had a decent "aftershock" (secondary period of less impressive cold), more total snow, days of snow, and days with snow cover
2022 - larger single event, higher peak snow depth

I would probably agree with you if I'd lived through the 70's and 80's. My standard is of the last 30 years so probably a much lower standard.

[VanCitySouth]

I would probably agree with you if I'd lived through the 70's and 80's. My standard is of the last 30 years so probably a much lower standard.

Fair enough.

In schools that's called academic inflation though

[walthz]

I would probably agree with you if I'd lived through the 70's and 80's. My standard is of the last 30 years so probably a much lower standard.

Anecdotally I would have to say that the '80s are nothing to be wished for. I'm sure somebody will throw data at me, but my memory is that we had a certain amount of cold but not a heck of a lot of snow over a long period of time - maybe an occasional dump that melted quickly.
And with the exception of a couple outliers the 90s was even worse... I worked outdoors through a lot of these years and remember some amazing balmy periods, even in February.
From 2008 onwards I have great hope that we are in for more interesting events.

[PortKells]

Anecdotally I would have to say that the '80s are nothing to be wished for. I'm sure somebody will throw data at me, but my memory is that we had a certain amount of cold but not a heck of a lot of snow over a long period of time - maybe an occasional dump that melted quickly.
And with the exception of a couple outliers the 90s was even worse... I worked outdoors through a lot of these years and remember some amazing balmy periods, even in February.
From 2008 onwards I have great hope that we are in for more interesting events.

Yep 80's were a cold dry decade. Another reason why I loved this past event - no issue whatsoever getting moisture up in here. I'll trade a few days of cold for that.

Regardless, it would be nice to see late January and early february pan out with a region wide on so we can truly call this a complete winter.

[Typeing3]

84-85, 85-86, and 88-89 were winters where we had at least some snow on the ground for over 4 weeks or 1 month.

[stuffradio]

My garlic is starting to grow. I see a couple sticking out of the ground.

[PortKells]

Man that Buffalo snowstorm really effed things up over there. Even for Buffalo standards they got walloped. Isn't that the second time this year too?

[stuffradio]

Is that last week of january still looking promising?

ecmwf-weeklies-CYXX-indiv_tmp_min-2272000.png

ecmwf-weeklies-CYXX-indiv_tmp_max-2272000.png

ecmwf-weeklies-CYXX-indiv_snow-2272000.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-5209600.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_46day-6246400.png

[Bonovox]

I’d give the event a B+ as a whole. The duration was definitely too short, the snow in the middle was top tier and then the over running event was lame. A solid cold snap, but nothing too spectacular.

[Roberts Creeker]

+3c snow infiltrating the EC forecast!

[PortKells]

ecmwf-weeklies-CYXX-indiv_tmp_min-2272000.png
ecmwf-weeklies-CYXX-indiv_tmp_max-2272000.png
ecmwf-weeklies-CYXX-indiv_snow-2272000.png
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-5209600.png
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_46day-6246400.png

Thanks, looks decent but not definitive by any means.