December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 9:18 pm The smoke in 5 of 7 years tells me enough. Everyone I talk to about it who's been around a while says that's unprecedented.
Historically not unprecedented. In recent history, yes.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 9:56 pm Historically not unprecedented. In recent history, yes.
I believed that was always assumed. If we're going back for all of human history or further, of course all kinds of way wilder stuff has happened.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Snow is now stuck on 2nd from last night of the forecast. :crazy:
High of 8.6c (not quite bananaman's 11c) and low of 5.2c and rainy. I did see a couple of guys in shorts though.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by John »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 9:18 pm The smoke in 5 of 7 years tells me enough. Everyone I talk to about it who's been around a while says that's unprecedented.
Maybe smoke was bad in the forties??
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bc_trucker »

So....figured to escape the cold for a week and flew to Phoenix....went to see the Grand Canyon for the first time in my life. Well, I'll have to come back another time. It's winter here as well with 6 inches of snow and a Canyon full with fog

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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:01 pm I believed that was always assumed. If we're going back for all of human history or further, of course all kinds of way wilder stuff has happened.
Nope, don't have to go that far back. Was pretty common in summers roughly prior to the 1950s, which isn't too long ago at all. It's recent enough in our region to have been documented extensively.


Wildfires are the "Old Normal" for the Pacific Northwest
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/ ... c.html?m=1
Wildfires and associated smoke are a major concern in the region, and some media, politicians, and others have suggested that wildfires and wildfire smoke are not normal and are a potent sign of a changing climate.

They are not correct. Wildfires and their smoke are a natural part of the Northwest ecosystem.

What was not normal was the period of suppressed fire during the later portion of the 20th century.

A good illustration is the visit of Mark Twain in August 1895, a summer in which the U.S. Weather Bureau noted "the sun was almost entirely obscured by excessive smoke from wildfires."

Twain was invited to speak in Olympia, where the chairman of the reception committee apologized for "smoke so dense that you cannot see our mountains and our forests, which are now on fire". Twain retorted:

“As for the smoke, I do not so much mind, I am accustomed to that. I am a perpetual smoker myself.”


A Region of Fire

There is a great deal of research, some of it based on charcoal deposits underground and others from tree-ring cores, that fire is a regular feature of our region for millennia.

This work has found that westside forests typically burn every few hundred years and eastside forests every decade or so. Wildfire is an essential part of Northwest ecology, something well-known to Native Americans, who regularly started fires to improve the productivity of the landscape.

When European explorers and settlers reached the region hundreds of years ago, they frequently commented about summer wildfires.

For example, during August 1788, European explorers sailing up the Northwest coast noted massive smoke from great fires (Indians, Fire and the Land in the Pacific Northwest, edited by Robert Boyd, 1999)

The non-Native American settlers that entered the Northwest during the early to mid-1800s noted frequent fires and smoky summers. For example, in September 1844, a wildfire descended the hills and nearly reached Fort Vancouver, north of present-day Portland.

A year later, the Great Fire of 1845 burned through the northern half of Lincoln County and the southern half of Tillamook County, Oregon, destroying much of the old-growth timber of the area (1.5 million acres). In 1853, the Yaquina fire engulfed 450,000 acres, followed by the Silverton Fire of 1865 (covering million acres) and the 1868 Coos Fire (300,000 acres), all on the western side of Oregon.

Image

September 1868 was a very bad year for fires and smoke. Residents of Olympia, Portland, and Oregon City were forced to use lamps in the daytime to carry on normal activities because the smoke was so dense and dark.

I could provide dozens of reports in newspapers and journals documenting the typical smoky summers of the Pacific Northwest, on both sides of the Cascades.

This smoky regime continued into the early 20th century, until the great wildfire of 1910, the Big Burn, seared a large area of eastern WA, northern Idaho, and western Montana. An event that killed 87 people. That fire led to the invigoration of the U.S. Forest Service and the goal of actively suppressing fires.

But it wasn't until the 1940s, that the technological capability to massively and effectively suppress fires was in place and the result was a collapse of fire area in the western U.S. The era of Smokey Bear had begun.

A plot of Oregon wildfires below tells the story. A huge decline in wildfire area around 1940. This collapse in fires was not climate change, but human intervention.

Image

During the past few decades (the 1970s to today) more fire has returned to the Northwest landscape but NOTHING like the wildfires before human intervention.

-Some of the wildfire increase is due to the policy of allowing some fires to burn (based on understanding the important ecological role of fire).
-Some of it is due to increased human ignition of fires (from our electrical infrastructure, arson, and accidental fire starts).
-Some of it is due to the massive invasion of foreign flammable invasive grasses into our region.
-Much of it is due to the massive changes in our forests, with fire suppression and poor forest practices, leading to unnaturally dense timber stands littered with past logging debris that burn so intensely and catastrophically that we cannot control them.
-Some of it might be associated with the relatively minor global warming (1-2F) that has influenced our region.

I believe the evidence is that the climate change component is a small player today in increasing wildfire frequency, with the other factors being more important.

In any case...and the important message in this blog... is that wildfire is a natural element of Northwest ecology and meteorology and that the 50-year period of suppressed wildfire and smoke are anomalies from the natural state of the region.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:07 pm Nope, don't have to go that far back. Was pretty common in summers roughly prior to the 1950s, which isn't too long ago at all. It's recent enough in our region to have been documented extensively.


Wildfires are the "Old Normal" for the Pacific Northwest
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/ ... c.html?m=1
I guess I should be more realistic - These multi year fire and smoke binges are unprecedented in the fire suppression era. But definitely there have been years of massive fires previously. Even catastrophic years and decades. I wonder if it had anything to do with humanity as we provided spark to dry forests while people were traversing through the west.

I'm a big believer in climate change being a major factor. Especially when we start seeing smoky skies and hot temperatures until late October like this year. I'm sure its happened before but it feels like its happening more and later recently.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Roberts Creeker wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:05 pm Snow is now stuck on 2nd from last night of the forecast. :crazy:
High of 8.6c (not quite bananaman's 11c) and low of 5.2c and rainy. I did see a couple of guys in shorts though.
I wanted to tell you that forecast the other day looked like complete bunk to me but I didn't want to be a downer :lol:
EC is a funny bunch.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:19 pm I guess I should be more realistic - These multi year fire and smoke binges are unprecedented in the fire suppression era. But definitely there have been years of massive fires previously. Even catastrophic years and decades. I wonder if it had anything to do with humanity as we provided spark to dry forests while people were traversing through the west.

I'm a big believer in climate change being a major factor. Especially when we start seeing smoky skies and hot temperatures until late October like this year. I'm sure its happened before but it feels like its happening more and later recently.
Anything can be unprecedented if the goalposts are moved adequately enough. ;)

Regarding dry late summer/early fall periods... see some stats below!


Driest Augusts (Vancouver)
#1 -- 1986: 0mm

#2 -- 1901: 1.3mm

#3 -- 1955: 2.8mm

#4 -- 2012: 2.9mm

#5 -- 1974: 3.3mm

#6 -- 1898: 3.8mm

#7 -- 2003: 4.1mm

#8 -- 2006: 4.8mm

#9 -- 2017: 5mm

#10 -- 1896, 1970, and 2002: 5.8mm

#13 -- 2000: 6mm

#14 -- 1919 and 1967: 6.1mm

#16 -- 2022: 6.4mm

#17 -- 1931: 6.6mm

#18 -- 1928 and 1947: 7.4mm

#20 -- 1930: 7.9mm

#21 -- 1942: 8.1mm

#22 -- 1998: 8.2mm

#23 -- 1915 and 2007: 8.4mm

#25 -- 1914: 9.4mm



Data: Steveston (1896-1936) + YVR (1937-2022)




---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driest Septembers (Vancouver)
#1 -- 1975: 0.3mm

#2 -- 1993: 2.1mm

#3 -- 1942: 4.1mm

#4 -- 2012: 5mm

#5 -- 1918: 5.1mm

#6 -- 2022: 7mm

#7 -- 1991: 8.6mm

#8 -- 1915 and 1925: 9.4mm

#10 -- 1916: 10.9mm

#11 -- 1989 and 1998: 11.2mm

#13 -- 1965, 1995, and 1999: 15.2mm

#16 -- 1919: 18.3mm

#17 -- 1909: 20.1mm

#18 -- 1908: 20.3mm

#19 -- 1952: 20.6mm

#20 -- 1896: 23.4mm



Data: Steveston (1896-1936) + YVR (1937-2022)




---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driest Octobers (Vancouver)
#1 -- 2002: 18.3mm

#2 -- 1987: 20.4mm

#3 -- 1991: 24.2mm

#4 -- 1897: 29.2mm

#5 -- 1907: 30.7mm

#6 -- 1911: 31.5mm

#7 -- 1952: 35.3mm

#8 -- 1916: 37.3mm

#9 -- 2013: 37.4mm

#10 -- 1964: 42.7mm

#11 -- 1923: 43.7mm

#12 -- 1978: 45.4mm

#13 -- 1922: 47.2mm

#14 -- 1986: 49.2mm

#15 -- 1917 and 1954 : 49.8mm



Data: Steveston (1896-1936) + YVR (1937-2022)
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

On the topic of the fire suppression era. Sharing this once again:

Fire on the early western landscape: An annotated record of wildland fires 1776-1900
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52864
Based on the analysis of fire-scarred trees, fire history studies have documented the frequency of early fires in the major cover types of the northern Rocky Mountains, middle Rocky Mountains, and Owyhee Plateau. These studies suggest that fire period-icity varied with climate and fuels.

Frequent fires in dry regions inhibited optimal growth of woody vegetation. Today, the number and sizes of fires in these regions have been markedly reduced, and large
areas have not burned since the late 1800's. This change has apparently been caused by the reduction of fine fuels by livestock, elimination of Indian ignitions, and efficient fire suppression.

Where fires were frequent, the reduction of fire has resulted in a dramatic increase in woody vegetation. In the Oregon Cascades and western Moorana, for example, ponderosa pine is being successionally replaced by shade tolerant species. On the Owyhee Plateau juniper has invaded the sagebrush and perennial bunchgrass type. In the cool-dry regions of Yellowstone Park and southwestern Moorana, Douglas-fir forests are now more densely stocked, and sagebrush/ grasslands are being heavily invaded by trees.

In general, fires have been less frequent in the moist regions of north Idaho and high-cold regions elsewhere. Fires were particularly prevalent during dry years 1910-1934. Since the early 1940's, the marked reduction in acres burned yearly has resulted in successional advances and reduced diversity.

Hisrorical narratives documenting early fire occurrence provide an understanding of the past role of fire in shaping patterns of vegetation. These narratives and fire
history studies demonstrate that fires have had a major influence on vegetation in the interior West. This knowledge can help land managers understand why vegetation has changed and aid in assessing the desired role of fire in the future.

Similar increases in tree cover and shifts in vegetation type during the past century can also be seen in BC -- such as the Okanagan and Columbia (east Kootenay) valleys, that were traditionally grassland mixed with sagebrush and sparse ponderosa pines.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Bc_trucker wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:06 pm So....figured to escape the cold for a week and flew to Phoenix....went to see the Grand Canyon for the first time in my life. Well, I'll have to come back another time. It's winter here as well with 6 inches of snow and a Canyon full with fog

:dunno: :wfoggy: :wfoggy: :crazy:
Well, that's unexpected imo. :o I would have expected sun and heat...or at least warmth and no snow.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:20 pm I wanted to tell you that forecast the other day looked like complete bunk to me but I didn't want to be a downer :lol:
EC is a funny bunch.
Thanks for not bursting my happy snow balloons :lol: :lol: Some one posted on here years ago (maybe more recently too) that the first 2-3 days are written by a meteorologist and the rest of the week is filled in by the computer. Since then I take everything past day 2 with a handful of salt, and it's pretty easy to see, so often the end of the week is just a cookie cutter stamp of earlier in the week. Does make for some fun posts though. :D

Edit: and also why I don't get too upset when there's 14 squares of rain, most likely it'll change to all sun in a couple of days. I agree they are a funny bunch...or more they put out funny/odd forecasts.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Ice on the shore of the Fraser near Mission apparently
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

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walthz wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 2:42 pm Anecdotally I would have to say that the '80s are nothing to be wished for. I'm sure somebody will throw data at me, but my memory is that we had a certain amount of cold but not a heck of a lot of snow over a long period of time - maybe an occasional dump that melted quickly.
And with the exception of a couple outliers the 90s was even worse... I worked outdoors through a lot of these years and remember some amazing balmy periods, even in February.
From 2008 onwards I have great hope that we are in for more interesting events.🤞🏼
Here are some stats comparing the 1980s with the 2010s. Let me know if you want to see anything else in comparison. Perhaps also a list of the ten coldest and snowiest months during the 1980s and 2010s as well would help?


Annual snowfall at YVR -- 1980s
1980: 45.9cm
1981: 22.6cm
1982: 60.8cm
1983: 12.0cm
1984: 38.6cm
1985: 56.7cm
1986: 17.6cm
1987: 8.2cm
1988: 11.4cm
1989: 38.6cm
Total snowfall 1980s: 312.4cm
Annual average snowfall 1980s: 31.2cm


Annual snowfall at YVR -- 2010s
2010: 16.8cm
2011: 24.1cm
2012: 27.2cm
2013: 11.6cm
2014: 25.8cm
2015: Trace
2016: 28.4cm
2017: 43.4cm
2018: 25.8cm
2019: 31.2cm
Total snowfall 2010s: 234.3cm
Annual average snowfall 2010s: 23.4cm
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

tyweather wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:55 pm Ice on the shore of the Fraser near Mission apparently
I believe that was taken in Agassiz.
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