August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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VanCitySouth
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:38 pm For entertainment purposes only, although many ensemble members on the 12Z Euro showed similar temperatures. :think: :shock:

At least dew points are modelled to be very low during the heat. But still... :sick: :sick: :sick:


gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1020800.png


Here is the modelled 500mb pattern for Wednesday August 16th. Despite the lack of humidity, that's still a heat dome.


500mbaugust16.png
Ugh. :sick: is right!
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

John wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:52 am Fwiw the twn is only forecasting highs to 27 for the next 2 weeks :thumbup:
That’s worthless to me. I’m pretty sure they go with the gfs operational exclusively. It will easily exceed that by 10 degrees in fairly certain.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Okay, so I have been lying to you guys all these years! I've been saying that Kamloops is hotter than Penticton in the summer because Kamloops is both hotter in the day and warmer at night, BUT I just looked at the hourly data and if you go by that the average hourly data at Penticton is higher!

In other words, Kamloops shoots up crazy hot in the afternoon and stays warm in the mornings, But mid-morning to early afternoon Kamloops warmer up slower than Penticton such that the hourly temperatures for the entire 24 our period are lower!

I learn something new everyday. Hourly data is all that matters. Stupid median between the high and low is irrelevant!
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The 12Z Euro continues to show a prolonged intense heatwave beginning on Sunday August 13th. Here is the latest control run. :sick: :sick: :sick:

sunday7pm.png

monday7pm.png

tuesday7pm.png

wednesday7pm.png

thursday7pm.png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Its unusual to see a long range ensemble mean in the low to mid 30's. The heatwave is still not a lock but its getting closer every run.

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1064000.png
ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-1064000.png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

John wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:52 am Fwiw the twn is only forecasting highs to 27 for the next 2 weeks :thumbup:
Would be perfect
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

VanCitySouth wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 9:40 am Ugh. :sick: is right!
Throw it away :thumbdown:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Weather101 wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:01 pm Throw it away :thumbdown:
Too problematic
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

PortKells wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:15 pm That’s worthless to me. I’m pretty sure they go with the gfs operational exclusively. It will easily exceed that by 10 degrees in fairly certain.
O man I hope you’re wrong this time that’s way to hot!
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Weather101 wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:00 pm Would be perfect
Yes!
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:50 pm The 12Z Euro continues to show a prolonged intense heatwave beginning on Sunday August 13th. Here is the latest control run. :sick: :sick: :sick:


sunday7pm.png



monday7pm.png



tuesday7pm.png



wednesday7pm.png



thursday7pm.png
You wanted heat, but not this much
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

John wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 3:19 pm O man I hope you’re wrong this time that’s way to hot!
Maybe Bc ambulance service will be ready this time.

Jk let’s be realistic.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:57 pm Its unusual to see a long range ensemble mean in the low to mid 30's. The heatwave is still not a lock but its getting closer every run.


ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1064000.png


ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-1064000.png
At least it’s not mid 40s I guess. Low 40s is still going to be dangerous for anyone without AC.
Every time I hear a story about landlords banning AC units I get pretty worked up. Even some of these retirement homes don’t have em.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 5:01 pm Maybe Bc ambulance service will be ready this time.

Jk let’s be realistic.
At least I invested in a portable A/C this summer. I've used it a few times already but haven't been desperate for it yet. I'm in the basement but it still gets warm and humid down here. Hopefully 8000 BTU is enough to handle the mid 30's or upper 30's to low 40's in a worst case scenario. :think: :think: :think:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 5:07 pm At least it’s not mid 40s I guess. Low 40s is still going to be dangerous for anyone without AC.
Every time I hear a story about landlords banning AC units I get pretty worked up. Even some of these retirement homes don’t have em.
I'm all for freedom and small government. However, I do believe in common sense rules and personally, I think it should be law that A/C units can not be banned under any circumstance in any building. I was talking to my hair stylist many years ago and she said her mom lives in apartment in one of the upper floors. Unfortunately, A/C units including portables are banned in the building. Her mom is elderly and it gets extremely hot in her room. Its absolutely ridiculous that the government allows townhome/apartment strata's to ban life safety equipment. It's equally ridiculous that any strata would actually seek to ban them. What's the big deal? They make too much noise? I guess we know the priorities of some... :roll: :crazy: :x
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