Winter 2023-24

[Mattman]

I have no expectations this winter. I'm ready for a dud as awful as the '91/'92 winter. I can stomach it. However, should the hyperbole of an approaching fight night creep into every snow event out east with the weather weenies out there, I might dry heave.

[Catnip]

I don't put too much stock in these maps but this would be ok....

oct.png

nov.png

dec.png

jab.png

[Slimshadyinsardis]

I can't believe that the media still publishes the "The Farmers’ Almanac" forecasts. It goes to show you that they don't care about misinformation and science at all. Clicks are way more important.

It’s a fun read Glacé l use to get one every Christmas that and the TWN calendar or the one put out by E.C l think David Philips had a hand in it everyday had a weather factoid for somewhere in Canada.

[stuffradio]

It’s a fun read Glacé l use to get one every Christmas that and the TWN calendar or the one put out by E.C l think David Philips had a hand in it everyday had a weather factoid for somewhere in Canada.

It's funny that Environment Canada sent me a weather calendar this last year as a gift for being a registered weather observer.

[tyweather]

1997-1998 and 2015-2016 appear to be the best comparisons for this upcoming winter and those ski seasons were actually above normal at Big White and Whistler. I didn't realize that 2015-2016 was a moderate el nino.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/ne ... ern-change

[Typeing3]

1997-1998 and 2015-2016 appear to be the best comparisons for this upcoming winter and those ski seasons were actually above normal at Big White and Whistler. I didn't realize that 2015-2016 was a moderate el nino.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/ne ... ern-change

'97-98 and '15-16 were both very strong El Nino's. Both among the most anomalous on record (since 1850).

FnqF9XEakAAIEw6.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

'97-98 and '15-16 were both very strong El Nino's. Both among the most anomalous on record (since 1850).
FnqF9XEakAAIEw6.jpeg

Terrible if true.

[AbbyJr]

'97-98 and '15-16 were both very strong El Nino's. Both among the most anomalous on record (since 1850).
FnqF9XEakAAIEw6.jpeg

For what it's worth, both 1997/98 and 2015/16 were also +PDO and +QBO. This winter will likely be a -PDO and as of now, the QBO is also trending negative. So contrary to those two years, which were very strong El Niño's combined with a +PDO and +QBO, this winter will likely end up as a moderate El Niño with -PDO and -QBO conditions. Therefore, I wouldn't use those two years as analogs to this upcoming winter, at least not based on the ENSO/QBO/PDO state. But as always, a seasonal forecast is always an educated guess at best.

[AbbyJr]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" has released his October-December seasonal forecast.

Here is a link to his full forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0H5a0f5bd4&t=1464s

His analogs are 1951, 1965, and 1972. He's going with a fairly normal October, a stormy November, and a cold December.

For what it's worth, all three of those Decembers had significant cold and snow in the PNW. Of course it was a colder climate back then but he is confident there is a good chance the PNW could be in for a cold December this year. Hopefully he's right. At the very least, we can dream.

It looks like he's taking the -PDO into consideration. It will be interesting if it saves us from a typical mild and dry El Niño.

Here's a breakdown of the 500mb pattern for each month during his analog years:

October:

october.png

November:

november.png

December:

december.png

[SouthSardiswx]

That's something to hang your toque on Jr. man.

[SouthSardiswx]

I'm not throwing in the snow shovel Jr. man.

[Typeing3]

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" has released his October-December seasonal forecast.

Here is a link to his full forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0H5a0f5bd4&t=1464s

His analogs are 1951, 1965, and 1972. He's going with a fairly normal October, a stormy November, and a cold December.

For what it's worth, all three of those Decembers had significant cold and snow in the PNW. Of course it was a colder climate back then but he is confident there is a good chance the PNW could be in for a cold December this year. Hopefully he's right. At the very least, we can dream.

It looks like he's taking the -PDO into consideration. It will be interesting if it saves us from a typical mild and dry El Niño.

Here's a breakdown of the 500mb pattern for each month during his analog years:

October:

october.png


November:

november.png


December:

december.png

The December 1972 cold snap was similar to that in December 2013, except a lot more anomalous. Pretty dry but quite cold for almost two weeks. Enough to freeze over the local lakes. It had a backdoor component to it, and it was actually one of the more notable cold snaps in recorded history for some parts of Oregon.

Late December 1965 into early January 1966 was very snowy. Measurable snow every single day for roughly two weeks and it is among the snowiest prolonged stretches in recorded history. Along the immediate coast at YVR temps were pretty marginal (hovering between -6c and 4c) so it was slush mixed with rain at times but it still piled up with depth peaking at 41cm on Jan 5th. Further inland it was slightly cooler which translated to some pretty extreme snow depths by our standards.

[SouthSardiswx]

Thanks for the great digging Tspoon l was 6 in the winter of 65/66, we lived at 64th and Victoria Dr. I recall that snowy period alternating between freezing and just above freezing slushy periods it was fun l remember out for a walk with my mom the neighborhood kids would slide down a steep hill in the neighborhood too steep for me to try.
Either that or my mom wouldn't allow me.

[AbbyJr]

Just checked and the current PDO index as of September is -2.94. I'm not sure if a scale exists to measure the strength of the PDO, but compared to other negative cycles, this looks to be in the strongly negative category.

If it weren't for ENSO, 1956/57 would be an analog to consider for this winter. But probably wishful thinking at best.

That winter featured an arctic blast in December followed by a cold January. The December cold snap was notable due to the heavy snow and damaging winds with the intense arctic front. Outflow winds gusted to 113 km/h and 15.2cm of snow fell on December 4th at YXX.

Interesting enough, that winter came off a double dip La Niña (weak 1954/55 and moderate (1955/56.)

Both 1955/56 and 1956/57 were -PDO cycles but the 1956/57 was a cold neutral ENSO compared to this winters warm positive ENSO.

So to compare:

1956/57 came off of double dip weak and moderate La Nina's followed by a cold neutral neutral and -PDO cycle.

This winter is coming off of triple dip moderate La Nina's followed by a warm positive ENSO and a -PDO.

One thing to note is that 1954/55 was actually a +PDO but it dropped negative for 1955/56 and remained negative during 1956/57. I'm not sure how much if any influence that had on the 1956/57 winter but I'm just noting what I see in the analogs.

To clarify, I'm not suggesting this winter will be a 1956/57 repeat. I'm just making what I consider to be some interesting observations.

[SouthSardiswx]

Just checked and the current PDO index as of September is -2.94. I'm not sure if a scale exists to measure the strength of the PDO, but compared to other negative cycles, this looks to be in the strongly negative category.

If it weren't for ENSO, 1956/57 would be an analog to consider for this winter. But probably wishful thinking at best.

That winter featured an arctic blast in December followed by a cold January. The December cold snap was notable due to the heavy snow and damaging winds with the intense arctic front. Outflow winds gusted to 113 km/h and 15.2cm of snow fell on December 4th at YXX.

Interesting enough, that winter came off a double dip La Niña (weak 1954/55 and moderate (1955/56.)

Both 1955/56 and 1956/57 were -PDO cycles but the 1956/57 was a cold neutral ENSO compared to this winters warm positive ENSO.

So to compare:

1956/57 came off of double dip weak and moderate La Nina's followed by a cold neutral neutral and -PDO cycle.

This winter is coming off of triple dip moderate La Nina's followed by a warm positive ENSO and a -PDO.

One thing to note is that 1954/55 was actually a +PDO but it dropped negative for 1955/56 and remained negative during 1956/57. I'm not sure how much if any influence that had on the 1956/57 winter but I'm just noting what I see in the analogs.

To clarify, I'm not suggesting this winter will be a 1956/57 repeat. I'm just making what I consider to be some interesting observations.

Excellent explanation Jr. man, l'm hoping for something decent but l'm prepared for a dud is the best l can do at this point l guess.