October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Could the Hive be correct for once? at least for the central valley.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouv ... t-days-sun

[SouthSardiswx]

A.I. Canada still forecasting an absolutely outstanding Thanksgiving weekend for the central valley.

Screenshot_20231004_050449_Canada Weather.jpg

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20231004132810-8398de4c0048275dc0ec994de1d3e214e57a55e3.png

20231004132750-486626006e023365f9ef8e7132d0bb3e222ede91.png

[Typeing3]

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles


00z GEFS (GFS ensembles)

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

00z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)

eps_apcpn_wus_60.png

00z GEPS (GEM ensembles)

gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

[Hawk]

Highs of 24c Sat/Sunday for Abby. Will be a nice farewell to the last gasp of "summertime" temps
Tell em Bono!!

[Bonovox]

Highs of 24c Sat/Sunday for Abby. Will be a nice farewell to the last gasp of "summertime" temps
Tell em Bono!!

I want a cold mist and drizzle.

[AbbyJr]

I want a cold mist and drizzle.

But imagine all the models showing arctic air and 30-50cm of snow but then busting at the last minute. Cold mist and drizzle is the outcome.

[Typeing3]

But imagine all the models showing arctic air and 30-50cm of snow but then busting at the last minute. Cold mist and drizzle is the outcome.

Sounds like the failed December 2009 winter storm warning.

[SouthSardiswx]

Probably employee information released Tyler's and all those hot babes working there geesh l'd be choked with Pelmorex.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... -down-its/

[SouthSardiswx]

Sounds like the failed December 2009 winter storm warning.

I thought the January 2011 bust was the one that lives in infamy Tdog. l'm still not over it as well as some other non events but that one keeps me up at nights well sometimes.

[AbbyJr]

Sounds like the failed December 2009 winter storm warning.

I remember a big bust around then but I don't think the official forecast was for 30-50cm of snow. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the warning was for up to 20cm of snow. But I could be thinking of another bust. It's unfortunate that there are so many busts to choose from nowadays.

[Typeing3]

I remember a big bust around then but I don't think the official forecast was for 30-50cm of snow. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the warning was for up to 20cm of snow. But I could be thinking of another bust. It's unfortunate that there are so many busts to choose from nowadays.

Actually you may be right! Initially the forecast may have been for more but looks like they were forecasting at least 20cm the day before.... which obviously completely fizzled out. Pretty epic fail for a forecast being 12-24 hours out.

News report on Monday, December 14, 2009:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/winter-sto ... t-1.464459

News report on Tuesday, December 15, 2009:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/winter-sto ... d-1.464719

[SouthSardiswx]

Actually you may be right! Initially the forecast may have been for more but looks like they were forecasting at least 20cm the day before.... which obviously completely fizzled out. Pretty epic fail for a forecast being 12-24 hours out.

News report on Monday, December 14, 2009:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/winter-sto ... t-1.464459

News report on Tuesday, December 15, 2009:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/winter-sto ... d-1.464719

Ah man, just reading that bust absolutely stung Tfail, we had the old forum so l'm sure we all coward together our heads hung low tails between our legs as we analyzed what happened or some may have taken to the bottle on a bender 10 day's before Christmas what a lump of coal.

[AbbyJr]

Actually you may be right! Initially the forecast may have been for more but looks like they were forecasting at least 20cm the day before.... which obviously completely fizzled out. Pretty epic fail for a forecast being 12-24 hours out.

News report on Monday, December 14, 2009:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/winter-sto ... t-1.464459

News report on Tuesday, December 15, 2009:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/winter-sto ... d-1.464719

I'll never forget the December 21, 2008 snowstorm bust for Abbotsford. While the Metro Vancouver suburbs did really well with nearly 30cm in parts of Coquitlam, YXX only recorded 7.8cm. The official forecast was for up to 20cm here. I remember it clearly and I'm not sure my location even hit 7.8cm. Few flurries in the afternoon with dry outflow winds.

The December 24/25th snowstorm did verify here though with 26cm falling on the 24th and another 17.4cm falling the morning of the 25th. Snow depth was 49cm at YXX but would have been much higher had the snowfall on December 21st verified.

That said, I'd take a December 2008 redux anytime. That winter event was pretty exciting.

Hopefully this winters 1968/69 redux will satisfy.

[SouthSardiswx]

I'll never forget the December 21, 2008 snowstorm bust for Abbotsford. While the Metro Vancouver suburbs did really well with nearly 30cm in parts of Coquitlam, YXX only recorded 7.8cm. The official forecast was for up to 20cm here. I remember it clearly and I'm not sure my location even hit 7.8cm. Few flurries in the afternoon with dry outflow winds.

The December 24/25th snowstorm did verify here though with 26cm falling on the 24th and another 17.4cm falling the morning of the 25th. Snow depth was 49cm at YXX but would have been much higher had the snowfall on December 21st verified.

That said, I'd take a December 2008 redux anytime. That winter event was pretty exciting.

Hopefully this winters 1968/69 redux will satisfy.

We were in Maple Ridge at the time we did well, probably right on the cusp l'm sure the further east you went the lighter amounts but l recall east Maple Ridge had as much as l did in west Maple Ridge.
Come to think of it we've had many busts with Arctic air in place although January 2011 just sucked we had no Arctic air in place we were modelled to receive Arctic air and snow if l'm not mistaken. January 2004 or 2005 not sure which year we had Arctic air in place and were supposed to receive 30cm and it busted Tbar and l talked about that one as well.