January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Well here we are, basically in the new year of 2024! (At the time of posting this). Happy new year to everyone and hopefully we get to enjoy some more snow before the groundhogs pop up and tell us we will have an early Spring.We will likely start seeing a lot more vegetation growth this month as we start creeping towards higher sun angles :)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Snow is almost gone at my place near Vernon. It's totally gone in Vernon and has been for several days. No snow for most of the southern and central interior. I saw this funny meme a friend made in Williams Lake...
412452297_10224169204843278_2076185667128367976_n.jpg
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

stuffradio wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:16 am Well here we are, basically in the new year of 2024! (At the time of posting this). Happy new year to everyone and hopefully we get to enjoy some more snow before the groundhogs pop up and tell us we will have an early Spring.We will likely start seeing a lot more vegetation growth this month as we start creeping towards higher sun angles :)
:wtf: Stuffers, either your done with winter or you want Christmas 🎄 over due to the high cost of everything. :lol: This is super early for a new thread for a month but may as well fork it. :wave:
Last edited by SouthSardiswx on Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Glacier wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 12:42 pm Snow is almost gone at my place near Vernon. It's totally gone in Vernon and has been for several days. No snow for most of the southern and central interior. I saw this funny meme a friend made in Williams Lake...

412452297_10224169204843278_2076185667128367976_n.jpg
That's about the look of it Glace :lol: is that Mr. Bean? such an entertaining comedian his Christmas skit with the turkey on his head is a classic.
images (1).jpeg
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The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:00 am :wtf: Stuffers, either your done with winter or you want Christmas 🎄 over due to the high cost of everything. :lol: This is super early for a new thread for a month but may as well fork it. :wave:
I wanted to spread the Christmas joy early by starting it :D
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

These control runs are funny.

:lol:
0C225D38-7160-4A70-BB5C-80D6F1DFFD32.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png



----------------------------------------------
20240101100301-70f19ca422280feba109da5d14a9db2e05f51503.png
20240101100239-b6d6007eb9a48a9f28292e134f4ea083936f11db.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

:dunno: :damn:
Hopefully we get our turn lucky Brits.

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weath ... w-forecast
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Happy New Year everyone! The model runs from this morning are much more "realistic" sadly.
gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4088800.png
gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4067200.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

6z Gfs ensembles get pretty cold in the extended.

From what I’ve seen, if there is a SSW, the effects would really be seen during this period. Who gets the prize still remains to be seen (if there is one at all).
2089E30F-D3A4-4BAD-9801-9C41EB505C21.png
A02D42A4-460E-4A3E-A063-67067A1B478C.png
9F9BDE37-5C16-443C-8997-C88DE457702B.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

I saw snowmobiles for sale parked outside in Quesnel. Seems fitting for sure.
Glacier wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 12:42 pm Snow is almost gone at my place near Vernon. It's totally gone in Vernon and has been for several days. No snow for most of the southern and central interior. I saw this funny meme a friend made in Williams Lake...

412452297_10224169204843278_2076185667128367976_n.jpg
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

stuffradio wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 5:12 am Happy New Year everyone! The model runs from this morning are much more "realistic" sadly.

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4088800.png
gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4067200.png
Ensemble mean is significantly colder than the operational.
gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4088800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Glacier wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 12:42 pm Snow is almost gone at my place near Vernon. It's totally gone in Vernon and has been for several days. No snow for most of the southern and central interior. I saw this funny meme a friend made in Williams Lake...

412452297_10224169204843278_2076185667128367976_n.jpg
For Vernon to be brown at NY is rare. Well, by my math Kelowna had 151.2mm of precipitation for 2023. The record low was 149.4mm. If not for the 3.9 mm of rain there yesterday, it would be a record dry year. 2023 will take 2rd and 2021 will be 3rd driest on the central valley floor.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Plausible, but borderline. Probably phantom snow in coastal areas.
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-4736800.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-4736800.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t925-4736800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Also plausble but borderline. Wet slop at the surface due to high precip rates dragging the snow level down.
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-4812400.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-4812400.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t925-4812400.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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