November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Its that the correct consensus Jr. man? or anyone.

[Typeing3]

Yes agree Slyts but l'm assuming the Arctic air is still on the table? I'm presuming it's the early next week event that is up in the air.
Hopefully we'll still score some good sticking snow.

850mb temps do not look to drop below -10c across the south coast after the system passes, so no arctic air for us; gradual trend over the last few days has been to keep it pretty bottled up in the interior.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

[Typeing3]

20221127091217-a9179a857d4846374c23687e0116697d75e90442.png

[Typeing3]

12z NAM shows the low making landfall across northern Vancouver Island early Wednesday... would mean snow to rain with a switch to southerly winds for us.

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh60-84.gif

[AbbyJr]

12z NAM shows the low making landfall across northern Vancouver Island early Wednesday... would mean snow to rain with a switch to southerly winds for us.
namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh60-84.gif

Apart from the GFS, tonight's trends are a big disappointment. Hopefully we are just seeing some warm outliers but I'm not so sure.

Please no January 2011 bust.

[Typeing3]

Apart from the GFS, tonight's trends are a big disappointment. Hopefully we are just seeing some warm outliers but I'm not so sure.

Please no January 2011 bust.

Most realistic scenario. Big snowfall followed by a transition to rain. Rapidly deepening lows usually like to make landfall to our north and don't slowly sag south or hang just offshore.

Silver lining is there does not appear to be a significant warmup... may transition back to snow late Wednesday or Thursday.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Ya know, even five days ago, my rule of thumb with the GFS and cold waves (add about 10ËšF or 6ËšC to the modeled temperatures) resulted in a pretty sloppy, wet, marginal snow event. So not a huge surprise where the pullback is leaving us.

[Hound]

Old John 63.

Well, you do pretty good on the forum and computer stuff for a 63 year youngin'

[Hound]

89

That is amazing if true, especially since you get a grip of the forum quite well!

[Hound]

Dew point finally dropping tonight after the winds. My DP has almost been on par with the temps for the last few days, now it's 5.5 out with a DP of +2

Baby steps...

[Typeing3]

06z GFS stays the course... so far.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh60-108.gif

[AbbyJr]

The 06Z GFS still shows a major snowstorm during the 24 period of Tuesday at 7:00 PM to Wednesday at 7:00 PM.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera-9863600.png

[Hound]

Well, DP has now dropped to -1
Still +5 out though.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Most realistic scenario. Big snowfall followed by a transition to rain. Rapidly deepening lows usually like to make landfall to our north and don't slowly sag south or hang just offshore.

Silver lining is there does not appear to be a significant warmup... may transition back to snow late Wednesday or Thursday.

Well what made Jan. 2011 so painful remember it collapsed right at prime time for us Jan 8th. I wasn't expecting anything this early TBH, if we get anything like afew slush falls and some bordline temps. consider it an early win. Dec to mid Jan is our prime time we haven't started yet.