November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

06Z Euro and GFS snowfall maps. Time frame on the Euro chosen to exclude sea level phantom snow, which looks to be a problem for it after 1800Z/1000J Wednesday (surface and 925 mbar temps just too warm).

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera-9831200.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-9852800.png

[Roberts Creeker]

At the risk of being snarky, it was early morning. Models: status quo. Even the fanatic, prolific posting in the AF dwindles after 3am. I honestly don't know how the usual suspects are perpetually up that late day after day, unless they are retired, on shift work, or unemployed. I say that with respect. Merely an observation.

I'm up late and also check when I wake up in the night, which sadly is often.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/statu ... gtzcQ&s=19

[PortKells]

Another period to watch. Ensembles slowly trending west with this polar lobe. #Decembertoremember

[Storm]

Another period to watch. Ensembles slowly trending west with this polar lobe. #Decembertoremember

Judah won't be happy. He already called Cold East

[wetcoast91]

Judah won't be happy. He already called Cold East

His experimental model run is still showing cold east and +20C west.

[Catnip]

His experimental model run is still showing cold east and +20C west.

My experimental model says to expect #feetz by the end of the week.

*Disclaimer - CFS model is currently operating under a very early pre-release Beta version

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

If this does turn out to be a winter to remember, I want credit for it. I brought some wintertime camping gear up from Bellingham over the weekend, under the assumption that temperatures will moderate soon and I’ll be able to get in a weekend overnight or two. With the right equipment, I’m up for camping at +5°C but not a whole lot colder (just too much of a survival ordeal in my book).

[Storm]

Clouds are moving in tomorrow morning around 6 am.

[AbbyJr]

ncep-wrf-fv3-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-9852800.png

[wetcoast91]

Some pull up the model with the most amout of rain and south wind for our fans.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Some pull up the model with the most amout of rain and south wind for our fans.

Have to get to work but if I notice them posted here I will be sure to share them with our friends on the AF.

[wetcoast91]

Have to get to work but if I notice them posted here I will be sure to share them with our friends on the AF.

There are no models showing any warm rain and south winds here. PDX could see temps in the low 50s through

[PortKells]

Some pull up the model with the most amout of rain and south wind for our fans.

...crickets.

[Hound]

This is not your typical SW track system that can flush the low level cold air as easy.

Yes, I think this is one of the most important details which seems to always evade us. Screw the SW flow!