November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Lmao

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Weather101
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:56 pm Lmao


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AbbyJr
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:51 pm NAM is much later with the system bringing it in about 12 hours after HRRR, but...aggressive with moisture.
Also takes the moisture further west. This solution would favour western sections of the Lower Mainland and leave Abbotsford mostly dry.

Toss that run out. :lol: :thumbup:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:08 pm Also takes the moisture further west. This solution would favour western sections of the Lower Mainland and leave Abbotsford mostly dry.

Toss that run out. :lol: :thumbup:
Shows cold rain for most of Metro Vancouver
nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_58.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:13 pm Shows cold rain for most of Metro Vancouver
nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_58.png
It makes sense tbh lol
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:13 pm Shows cold rain for most of Metro Vancouver
nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_58.png
ICON is similar
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Potentially some snow/rain showers later in SE sections associated with energy riding up from a shortwave. Not sure why all models are not showing this as it's evident there's some developing feature on IR.

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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:17 pm ICON is similar
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png
And the RGEM too
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:13 pm Shows cold rain for most of Metro Vancouver
nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_58.png
For some reason I get the feeling that the ambient conditions favour things running cooler than modeled.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:23 pm For some reason I get the feeling that the ambient conditions favour things running cooler than modeled.
Could be. Modified arctic air seeps into the region tonight. Snow cover could help keep the surface cooler than modeled.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:19 pm And the RGEM too
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png
A lot that far offshore pretty much pumps in warmer aloft.Temps are modeled to be -4C at onset of precip at 850mb while 925mb are borderline at 0C or 1C.


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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:29 pm A lot that far offshore pretty much pumps in warmer aloft.Temps are modeled to be -4C at onset of precip at 850mb while 925mb are borderline at 0C or 1C.


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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Only 612 hours away! :clap: :lol: :14clown:
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cfs-daily-all-c00-namer-t2m_c_anom_7day-2012800.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:37 pm Only 612 hours away! :clap: :lol: :14clown:

cfs-daily-all-c00-namer-z500_anom_7day-2012800.png

cfs-daily-all-c00-namer-t2m_c_anom_7day-2012800.png
Bono did it. :shock:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:37 pm Only 612 hours away! :clap: :lol: :14clown:

cfs-daily-all-c00-namer-z500_anom_7day-2012800.png

cfs-daily-all-c00-namer-t2m_c_anom_7day-2012800.png
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