December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

Ummmm.

[wetcoast91]

Goes

[PortKells]

Ummmm.

So close or close enough? I don't know how to read these patterns at the 500 mb level, but wouldn't we need it to dig SW to deliver us the cold?

[Storm]

So close or close enough? I don't know how to read these patterns at the 500 mb level, but wouldn't we need it to dig SW to deliver us the cold?

At this point we need the pattern to be there, details will change run to run. EPS is better for that far out.

[Bonovox]

So close or close enough? I don't know how to read these patterns at the 500 mb level, but wouldn't we need it to dig SW to deliver us the cold?

About as close as it gets and enough to deliver the goods. At least for low land snow. Don’t want to see it dig too much further SW than that as then you risk disconnecting the trough from the source of cold air. It’s pretty good. Room for improvement, but still good.

[AbbyJr]

So close or close enough? I don't know how to read these patterns at the 500 mb level, but wouldn't we need it to dig SW to deliver us the cold?

It’s very close to being major cold. A few inches further west with that polar low and we are all set. The trend so far is our friend.

[Bonovox]

One thing to note is that the trend so far this winter has been to spill too much energy SW with the initial trough. So, seeing it where it is now could end up being really good as we draw closer to the day.

[Bonovox]

Kona low to help anchor the block.

[Roberts Creeker]

I cannot believe how much the models are diverging and changing from run to run. The only thing I'm pretty sure of is there will be a cold airmass SOMEWHERE at SOMETIME.

I think that's the most accurate forecast for the upcoming weeks I've seen so far. Are you sure you're not a weather forecaster?

[Bonovox]

Aaaaaand there is our snow moving in at the end of the run. Just in time for Christmas.

[PortKells]

I think that's the most accurate forecast for the upcoming weeks I've seen so far. Are you sure you're not a weather forecaster?

No but if I was;

" There will be a 100% chance of weather today. That weather will persist until the end of the day, transitioning into weather tomorrow that will either be the same or different as today. Commuters are advised to either stay home or drive recklessly depending on how they're feeling about said weather."

[wetcoast91]

EPS gives us a glancing blow and goes

[Hawk]

Neetzzz
ec-fast_T850_nwus_9.png

I love it when you guys post these maps. Check out that cold lobe that always descends into the heart of the Simikameens

[stuffradio]

12Z GEM goes crazy. 12Z ECMWF is cold

79A79FE1-95B1-46B8-AF4E-91632F255D06.jpeg

873D6EAA-9C5E-4D1A-BE3E-59D72156E6D3.jpeg

[Catnip]

Aaaaaand there is our snow moving in at the end of the run. Just in time for Christmas.