December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Monty
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:11 am Biggest improvement there is the Op is no longer an outlier and the mean takes a dive too. This is happening.
There is a small cluster of ensemble members holding out on delivering the goods. Once they cave the mean will really drop off. The cold is definitely coming. Looking pretty good for at least a bit of snow on the front end too.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:43 am Debating on whether I should create a WX Twitter account to hype this up.

"Major Arctic blast headed for the South Coast. Snow amounts in excess of 1 meter should fall by next week."
Wait. Are you that Andrew dude? :o
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:49 am Wait. Are you that Andrew dude? :o
No, he is getting schooled by Andrew. The kid completely owns him.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Ummm..just saying. The last "snow" event fell apart a few days beforehand. That was quite sad in such a cheerful time of the year. :think:
I'll wait until 48 hours before :shh:
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Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:50 am No, he is getting schooled by Andrew. The kid completely owns him.
Close but WeatherPro owns all of us.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by John »

Hawk wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:51 am Ummm..just saying. The last "snow" event fell apart a few days beforehand. That was quite sad in such a cheerful time of the year. :think:
I'll wait until 48 hours before :shh:
#SupportforteamPineapple :wave:
Exactly!
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Hawk wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:51 am Ummm..just saying. The last "snow" event fell apart a few days beforehand. That was quite sad in such a cheerful time of the year. :think:
I'll wait until 48 hours before :shh:
#SupportforteamPineapple :wave:
It didn't really fall apart. Many pockets of 12-15cm across the region. I'd call that a win.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Hawk wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:51 am Ummm..just saying. The last "snow" event fell apart a few days beforehand. That was quite sad in such a cheerful time of the year. :think:
I'll wait until 48 hours before :shh:
#SupportforteamPineapple :wave:
I had 15 cms on the ground for a week and had a stretch of three straight days below freezing :dunno:
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

This right here is a snow making progression on the GEM. Just enough over water trajectory for some cyclogenesis. Don't want to see too much as that will moderate things pretty quickly, but just enough to form some sort of surface low.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

No significant changes on the 12Z Euro yet, which is a very good thing.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:44 am There is a small cluster of ensemble members holding out on delivering the goods. Once they cave the mean will really drop off. The cold is definitely coming. Looking pretty good for at least a bit of snow on the front end too.
Yup. Looks likely some cool down will happen (real cold). Models have the initial surge dumping due West and then spilling over the entire CONUS. Any semblence of a SE ridge could lengthen the colder spell.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:59 am It didn't really fall apart. Many pockets of 12-15cm across the region. I'd call that a win.
Im talking about the Saturday "Snowstorm" from a few days ago. It was snowy in the models...then not a flake to be seen anywhere. Even Pornoman got the shaft bahahaha :lol: :lol:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Timing has sped up a bit on the 12Z. :think:
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Hawk wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:26 am Im talking about the Saturday "Snowstorm" from a few days ago. It was snowy in the models...then not a flake to be seen anywhere. Even Pornoman got the shaft bahahaha :lol: :lol:
Ah yes. That was a bust from start to finish.
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Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:27 am Timing has sped up a bit on the 12Z. :think:
A lot more cold air available across BC too. :shock:
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