December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[tyweather]

Looks like two polar lobes for the east.

[Monty]

Anyone think we see 25 cm +? Ratio will more like 15:1, not a big warm up until later tomorrow.

I think the lacking amount of precip is the main inhibiting factor against 25cm or more. These fronts are not moisture laden at least to start. We do typically see some precip enhancement along the north shore in warm front setups so perhaps that will be the bullseye.

[Hawk]

12z HRDPS

HawksHill bullseye

[Hawk]

Consecutive GFS trending cooler and snowier for the local Mountains. Was looking like a torchfest a few days ago but models are now showing 8-12ft up there.

How much in the Similkameens Mtns?

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I think the lacking amount of precip is the main inhibiting factor against 25cm or more. These fronts are not moisture laden at least to start. We do typically see some precip enhancement along the north shore in warm front setups so perhaps that will be the bullseye.

2 things l'd rather sacrifice a lower snow total for the central valley but perhaps a longer duration warm up for any freezing rain, and l'd absolutely love to see the mountains start accumulating snowfall so come spring it's compact to prevent any flooding then.
It's -13c egg grogs @ the pond in South Sardis and as lwrite this Winter storm warning just issued for the Fraser valley.

[wetcoast91]

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

How much in the Similkameens Mtns?

Perhaps try going there, you ask alot about it but never seem to go there.

[arbetrader]

No new low temps recorded last night, other than the fact that my warmest temp since Monday has been -10.8 C... Which itself is crazy for East Abbotsford at 100ft elevation. I didn't even crack -11 yesterday lol - The full southern exposure is actually helping keep temps down given the direction the winds are blowing

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

What the is that what Elvis meant by a hunka hunka

[Monty]

Dropped to -12.9C here. I’m happy with that. It was occasionally gusty overnight so that kept temps up

[Abby_wx]

Minima were a notch colder last December.

Yup. I was 2C colder last December, but I wasn't really expecting to beat that. Winds were much lighter at that time.

Anyway, it's more about the wind chill in the valley than the temperature.

Speaking of the wind, I've heard that drifting snow been a major issue around YXX for the past couple of days.

[Bonovox]

12z HRDPS has the snow beginning at 0200am Friday morning and lasting into the morning. It switches to freezing rain and sleet from SW to NE over Metro Vancouver beginning at noon. By 0300pm all of Metro Vancouver is under freezing rain. Strangely it does turn back to snow briefly around 0600pm, but I doubt this. That is a very odd progression, especially with upper levels warming quickly. By 0900pm most of Metro Vancouver is under a plain cold rain, but the eastern Fraser Valley is still getting freezing rain. Precip moves out by midnight for a short reprieve.

This is just an analysis of what the HRDPS is showing. Nothing more and nothing less.

[Monty]

It’s looking like a pretty uniform 10-15cm across the south coast with this. Perhaps a bit less extreme southern Island and a bit more out in chilliwack to hope.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks like two polar lobes for the east.

Gotta love that they say “all over North America” for an event mostly limited to the eastern half of it. Kinda gives away their mindset right there.

[Bonovox]

You know, looking at the 12z HRDPS sounding for 0400pm tomorrow. That is VERY close to staying all snow. Probably just model noise, but thought it would be worth pointing out.