December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

Well, local ski hills ruined and snow-pack took a hard hit over the last couple days. Amazing how all the beautiful snow down here has been completely devastated and wiped out. You notice, EVERY TIME we have a decent cold spell with a nice snow buildup, we always get a lame AR that destroys everything, and as soon as the snow is gone, the AR stops, just like today. So pathetic. Is it too much to ask for a slow warm-up or just showers rather than torrential rain?

The earlier cold spell was followed by a dry week.

Part of the problem IMO is the mechanism to get the snowstorm itself is such an amplified pattern that it lends itself to these amplified rain storms as soon as they are over. Its just a part of the package.

[Hound]

I really want to know the correlation.

[Feetz of Snow]

Anyone else have a wind warning up for them

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

[Radar]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (3).png

Looks like a trend warmer. Maybe if Hound is lucky, winter will be done.

[Radar]

That's pineapple spirit! Lots of +13 to a +17 readings in Whatcom County this morning.

Snow is confined to piles here so hopefully can get a run in today. Should see sunshine with temps in the low teens today!

Not good. We need snow on the mountains. Rain here, nothing to do outside. Need to take the kids up to the snow but it is a sloppy mess. Now I will have to do something lame like a board game.

[PortKells]

The weeklies have us getting chilly again in the final third of January. They've been pretty dead on lately.

[PortKells]

I really want to know the correlation.

The causation makes sense. To get a major snowstorm you need some Pacific energy like we had on Tuesday. That requires some undercutting of the wpac block. The downstream effect is that westerlies end up breaking through, pushing the cold air away.

The exception to this would be when you get a stalled arctic front leading into the cold snap, or a coastal slider. However I find strong sliders are still followed by a day or two of cold and then a warmup, Like last dec 30. Our blocks are always perilously close to falling apart it seems. Last stable longer lasting block I remember was probably February 2019.

This past arctic blast as amazing as it was, was missing a key feature to prolong cold; the southeast ridge. Therefore I think we only got by based on the absolute intensity of the airmass and just a perfectly placed low.

[Roberts Creeker]

Not a wind warning but a SWS for coastal flooding. That's a new one to me

[walthz]

I appreciate all the postmortems, but honestly have had three decent snowfalls and two prolonged periods of snow on the ground and it's not even January, so I think it's quite possible there'll be more to come

[PortKells]

I appreciate all the postmortems, but honestly have had three decent snowfalls and two prolonged periods of snow on the ground and it's not even January, so I think it's quite possible there'll be more to come

It's been a top notch winter so far.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Not good. We need snow on the mountains. Rain here, nothing to do outside. Need to take the kids up to the snow but it is a sloppy mess. Now I will have to do something lame like a board game.

You feelin’ OK, buddy?

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Not a wind warning but a SWS for coastal flooding. That's a new one to me

I told you Ms. Weirdwarningcreeks you might get some strange warnings this winter.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I appreciate all the postmortems, but honestly have had three decent snowfalls and two prolonged periods of snow on the ground and it's not even January, so I think it's quite possible there'll be more to come

Ah great Walt cheer up it ain't over till Kate Smith sings.
Or when Elvis leaves the bldg. unfortunately both have happened all ready.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I really want to know the correlation.

It's strange Houndman, sometimes we look for correlations or reason's but in all honesty having lived here all my life l truly think they don't exist on the gloomy wet coast.