January 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Doesn't surprise me. Models are often too quick with pattern changes. But we don't want to see it pushed back any further.

Maybe a little bit more. How about a big dump of snow on the 9th for my birthday?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Sovwe getting a snow on Saturday? GFS seems to think so for some reason.

Pornoman and Westwood Plateau Special if it happens.

[PortKells]

Lol. The models have taketh this morning. The GEFS anyways. Still thinking something happens but maybe its being pushed back or watered down. Glad we already have some great stuff under out belts but it would be really nice to cement this as an A+ winter with a classic February blast.

[Catnip]

Lol. The models have taketh this morning. The GEFS anyways. Still thinking something happens but maybe its being pushed back or watered down. Glad we already have some great stuff under out belts but it would be really nice to cement this as an A+ winter with a classic February blast.

The blocking is still there. Where or how it sets up is yet to be determined.

Agree... hopefully we get something out of it.

If anything it will be nice to get a pattern change. Even a stretch of sunny weather would be nice.

I'm almost ready for spring.... almost.

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[Bear Golden]

Got up to grouse last night after I saw that it had 40cm in the last ~12 hours. It was actually pretty good, especially the Peak run. Like actual powder and not a soggy mess.

All those photos being shared of the lower cut from the weekend are no longer accurate. 2+ft feel on those patches and counting. I didn't see any dirt except for the creek right under the chair.

With the weather ahead looking cooler and more snow on the way, it's fair to say we're going to hold onto our local mountain ski season for the time being at least!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Lol. The models have taketh this morning. The GEFS anyways. Still thinking something happens but maybe its being pushed back or watered down. Glad we already have some great stuff under out belts but it would be really nice to cement this as an A+ winter with a classic February blast.

It’s just the normal clown range flip-flopping.

As Michael Snyder is fond of saying: “for amusement purposes only.” At least there’s now something to be amused by in the clown range beyond dancing pineapples.

[Hawk]

Honestly though, the weather is getting freaking depressing. All this drizzle every day. Can we have some damn sunshine if it's going to be this warm. Otherwise can we have our snow back? The local ski hills look like trash.

It's Juneuary

[Monty]

It’s going to get cold at some point in early February. No doubt in my mind.

[PortKells]

The blocking is still there. Where or how it sets up is yet to be determined.

Agree... hopefully we get something out of it.

If anything it will be nice to get a pattern change. Even a stretch of sunny weather would be nice.

I'm almost ready for spring.... almost.

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I think the question is does it get chilly or does it get cold? i'm reminded of January 24th, 2021 a much hyped up pattern that was in the models forever but it really wasn't amplified and turned out to be some snizzle and cold rain. We're looking more for a February 2017 pattern

[Catnip]

It’s going to get cold at some point in early February. No doubt in my mind.

Tell Em Monty!

[Monty]

I think the question is does it get chilly or does it get cold? i'm reminded of January 24th, 2021 a much hyped up pattern that was in the models forever but it really wasn't amplified and turned out to be some snizzle and cold rain. We're looking more for a February 2017 pattern

The COLD is coming.

I’d bet if we don’t get a direct hit at some point in February it will be because the ridge is too close. Arctic air will become very available to the mid latitudes in February

[PortKells]

The COLD is coming.

I’d bet if we don’t get a direct hit at some point in February it will be because the ridge is too close. Arctic air will become very available to the mid latitudes in February

Totally, I think the models could even potentially bounce back for the 28th/29th period. We've seen this movie before. It's always a ride for better or for worse. Models are so volatile its insane. They should come with a warning - "DO NOT RIDE MODELS WITHOUT PROFESSIONAL GUIDANCE"

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

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12z ECMWF ensembles:

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12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Typeing3]

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[AbbyJr]

I think the question is does it get chilly or does it get cold? i'm reminded of January 24th, 2021 a much hyped up pattern that was in the models forever but it really wasn't amplified and turned out to be some snizzle and cold rain. We're looking more for a February 2017 pattern

February 2017 was epic for the valley. Abbotsford airport recorded a snow depth of 45cm in a few days. Parts of Chilliwack had over 2 feet of snow. Top tier event for sure but unfortunately, those types of setups are rare around here. Still not as epic as March 1951 and January 1954 though, which were much colder and produced more snow.